Spatiotemporal variation in pup abundance and preweaning survival of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) in the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada (2023)

Marine mammal populations worldwide greatly benefitted from conservation measures put in place since the 1970s following overexploitation, and many pinniped populations have recovered. However, threats due to bycatch, interspecific interactions or climate change remain, and detailed knowledge on vital rates, population dynamics and their responses to environmental changes is essential for efficient management and conservation of wild populations. In this study, we quantified pup abundance and survival of individually marked harbour seal (Phoca vitulina Linnaeus, 1758) pups during the preweaning period at Bic Island and Métis sites in the St. Lawrence Estuary from 1998 – 2019. We used mark-recapture models to evaluate competing hypotheses regarding variation in daily preweaning survival rates and capture probability during the pups’ first 30 days of life. Pup abundance increased from 76 (95% CI: [59, 101]) to 323 [95% CI: 233, 338] in the past two decades at Bic Island and from 66 [95% C..., ,

自20世纪70年代全球海洋哺乳动物遭遇过度开发以来，彼时起实施的各类保护措施为其种群恢复带来了极大裨益，众多鳍足类（pinniped）种群已成功实现复苏。然而，副渔获物、种间相互作用及气候变化所引发的威胁仍持续存在；若要对野生海洋哺乳动物种群开展高效管理与保护，明晰其生命率、种群动态及其对环境变化的响应机制至关重要。本研究于1998年至2019年间，在圣劳伦斯河口湾的比克岛（Bic Island）与梅蒂斯（Métis）采样点，对经个体标记的港海豹（*Phoca vitulina* Linnaeus, 1758）幼崽在断奶前阶段的丰度与存活率进行了定量分析。我们采用标记重捕模型（mark-recapture models），针对幼崽出生后前30天内的日度断奶前存活率与捕获概率的变化情况，对多个竞争性假说进行了评估。过去二十年间，比克岛的港海豹幼崽丰度从76只（95%置信区间（CI）：[59, 101]）增长至323只（95%置信区间（CI）：[233, 338]），梅蒂斯采样点的幼崽丰度则从66只（95%置信区间（CI）：[……]），，