Replication package for "Announcing a penalty is not enforcing it: the 2025 US anti-transshipment tariff and trade rerouting in Vietnam and ASEAN"

Replication materials for a study of the 40 per cent anti-transshipment provision written into the 2025 US reciprocal tariff schedule. The package contains the estimation and verification code (Python, pyfixest), the derived result files in JSON, the panels underlying the four figures, and the figures themselves. Estimates are Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood on a balanced monthly panel of US imports at the eight-digit tariff line for five origins, January 2023 to May 2026. The underlying import records are public and are retrieved from the United States Census Bureau's International Trade API; the retrieval scripts are included. Eight verification scripts re-derive every number reported in the manuscript from the result files and fail on any discrepancy.