Data and code from: Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics

Climate change has substantially shifted the phenology of organisms. These shifts vary across species and habitats and are shaped by species natural history traits and local environmental conditions, yet the relative importance of these drivers remains unclear. Moreover, climate can have diverse effects on different aspects of phenology, such as the timing and duration of activity, but this complexity is rarely captured by commonly used phenological metrics. We used multidecadal butterfly surveys and climate data from five montane sites spanning an elevational gradient to investigate how climate affects different aspects of annual flight period of 135 butterfly species. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we modeled annual probability of occurrence distributions for species using polynomial models that capture changes in abundance, timing, and length of flight. Spring maximum and minimum temperatures and winter precipitation were the best predictors of inter-annual variation in ph..., , # Data and code from: Climate and species traits give rise to complex phenological dynamics

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.sxksn03h0](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sxksn03h0)

## Description of the data and file structure

### Files and variables

This data archive contains three main folders, each with sub-folders that include a Data_README.txt file describing the content and usage of that sub-folder.

#### File: DATA.zip

**Description:** This file contains the long-term dataset, including presence/absence records for all butterfly species at each site from 1985 to 2023, species natural history traits, and climate data.

#### File: Statistical_models.zip

**Description:** This file contains the R scripts for all fitted models (both with and without climate variables) used to estimate annual occurrence distributions for each species at each site using a hierarchical Bayesian framework in stan.

#### File: Figures_and_Tables.zip

**Description:** This file contains the R scripts used to g...,

气候变化已显著改变了生物的物候学（phenology）。此类物候变化因物种和生境而异，同时受物种自然历史性状与局地环境条件共同调控，但上述驱动因子的相对重要性仍尚不明确。此外，气候对物候学的不同维度（如活动时间与持续时长）可产生多样影响，而当前常用的物候指标却极少能捕捉到这一复杂性。本研究依托覆盖海拔梯度的5处山地样地的数十年蝴蝶调查数据与气候数据，探究气候如何影响135种蝴蝶的年度飞行期各维度特征。我们采用分层贝叶斯框架，通过多项式模型构建物种年度出现分布，该模型可反映种群丰度、活动时间及飞行时长的变化。春季最高、最低气温与冬季降水量是解释物候年际变化的最优预测因子……，，# 数据与代码来源：《气候与物种性状共同驱动复杂物候动态》

数据集DOI: [10.5061/dryad.sxksn03h0](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.sxksn03h0)

## 数据与文件结构说明

### 文件与变量

本数据归档包含3个主文件夹，每个主文件夹下均设有子文件夹，各子文件夹内均附带Data_README.txt文件，用于说明该子文件夹的内容与使用方法。

#### 文件：DATA.zip

**说明：** 该文件包含长期监测数据集，涵盖1985年至2023年各样地所有蝴蝶物种的出现/缺失记录、物种自然历史性状数据以及气候数据。

#### 文件：Statistical_models.zip

**说明：** 该文件包含所有已拟合模型的R脚本（包含与不包含气候变量两种形式），用于基于stan平台的分层贝叶斯框架，估算各物种在各研究样地的年度出现分布。

#### 文件：Figures_and_Tables.zip

**说明：** 本文件包含用于生成相关图表与表格的R脚本