An ensemble of trend preserving statistically downscaled projections for key marine variables under three different future scenarios for the Chilean coast

The ensemble provides future projections of key marine variables under climate change for the Chilean coast. The datasets were produced for three different future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and three different variables (potential temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH) at three different depth levels (5m, 25m and seafloor with the exception of chlorophyll) at monthly frequency for the years 1993 - 2099. The statistical metrics provided are the mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum median, 2.5 and 97.5 percentile. The ensemble is computed over 4-7 different CMIP6 model realisations (depending on variable), the bias corrections and statistical downscaling applied is based on the methodology by Lange, 2019 and was trained on the GLORYS12V1 reanalysis provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The following Earth System Models were used in building the ensemble: CMCC-ESM2 (Lovato et al. 2022) CMCC-CM2-SR5 (Cherchi et al. 2019) CanESM-CanOE (Swart et al., 2019) GFDL-ESM4 (Dunne et al., 2020) MIROC-ES2L (Hajima et al., 2020) MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Mauritsen et al., 2020) UKESM1-0-LL (Sellar et al., 2019) Analogue datasets are provided in separate zenodo entries for the regions of the Mediterranean Sea, the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the area around the Yucatán Peninsula, see “Related identifiers”. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. Generated using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information; https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00021, https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00019. This data is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

本集合数据集提供了智利海岸区域气候变化下关键海洋变量的未来预估结果。本数据集基于三种不同未来情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5及SSP5-8.5），涵盖位势温度、溶解氧、pH值共3类核心海洋变量，设置5米、25米以及除叶绿素外的海底深度共3个深度层级，时间分辨率为月度，时间跨度为1993年至2099年。所提供的统计指标包括均值、标准差、最小值、最大值、中位数，以及2.5%和97.5%分位数。该集合由4至7套不同的耦合模式比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）模式成员集合而成（成员数量依变量类型有所差异），所采用的偏差校正与统计降尺度方法基于Lange于2019年发表的研究框架，训练数据取自哥白尼海洋环境监测服务（Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service, CMEMS）提供的GLORYS12V1再分析数据集。本集合构建所用的地球系统模式包括：CMCC-ESM2（Lovato等，2022）、CMCC-CM2-SR5（Cherchi等，2019）、CanESM-CanOE（Swart等，2019）、GFDL-ESM4（Dunne等，2020）、MIROC-ES2L（Hajima等，2020）、MPI-ESM1-2-LR（Mauritsen等，2020）以及UKESM1-0-LL（Sellar等，2019）。地中海、北海、波罗的海、比斯开湾及尤卡坦半岛周边海域的对应模拟数据集已以独立Zenodo条目形式发布，详见"相关标识符"栏目。本研究感谢世界气候研究计划下属的耦合模式工作组，该工作组负责统筹CMIP相关工作。本数据集基于欧盟哥白尼海洋服务信息生成，相关DOI链接为：https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00021、https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00019。本数据集采用知识共享署名-非商业性使用-相同方式共享4.0国际许可协议（Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License）进行分发。