Efeito de alterações no preço de referência sobre as indenizações do Seguro Agrícola de Faturamento da soja no Brasil

Agricultural revenue insurance has advantages and disadvantages compared to traditional crop insurance and, despite its great penetration in the North American market, in Brazil, it is still incipient. The objective of this study was to evaluate the changes effect in the reference price (base price) on the indemnities of these contracts for the soybean crop, in selected municipalities, from 2008 to 2018. The results showed that there is a weak association between price and productivity since the estimated effect was close to zero, but it was negative in which price and production show an inversely correlated behavior. Also, the choice of the price parameter had a strong influence on the indemnity value. When using the Paranaguá price, producers would receive a lower amount of indemnity than if they used the reference price in their region. In particular, for the states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul the difference would be much greater. This fact may be an indication of the low contracting of income insurance by these producers, who, even with the federal subsidy, have shown less demand, compared to producers in the South region.