A positive effect of cumulative intergroup threat on reproductive success

Outgroup conflict is a powerful selective force across all social taxa. Whilst it is well-documented that individual outgroup contests can have a range of direct and indirect fitness consequences, the cumulative pressure of outgroup threats could also potentially impact reproductive success. Here, we use long-term life-history data from a wild population of dwarf mongooses (Helogale parvula) to investigate how intergroup interaction (IGI) rate might influence breeding and offspring survival. IGI rate did not predict the number of litters produced in a season or the inter-litter interval. Unexpectedly, IGI rate was positively associated with the number of pups alive 3 months after emergence from the breeding burrow. This was not due to a difference in how many pups emerged but because those in groups experiencing more IGIs had a higher survival likelihood post-emergence. Detailed natural observations revealed that both IGI occurrence and the threat of intergroup conflict led to more sentinel behaviour by adults, likely reducing the predation risk to young. Our results contrast the previously documented negative effects of outgroup interactions on reproductive success and highlight the need to assess cumulative threat, rather than just the impact of physical contests, when considering outgroup conflict as a social driver of fitness.