Cross-scale interactions among bark beetles, climate change and wind disturbances a landscape modeling approach

Bark beetles are a key forest disturbance agent worldwide, with their impact shaped by climate, forest susceptibility, and interactions with other disturbances such as windthrow and fire. There is ample evidence on the interactions among these factors at small spatial and temporal scales, but projecting their long-term and landscape-scale impacts remains a challenge. We developed a spatially explicit model of European spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) dynamics that incorporates beetle phenology and forest susceptibility, and integrated it in a climate-sensitive landscape model (LandClim). We first corroborated model outputs at various spatial and temporal scales and then applied the model in three case studies (in the Black Forest, Germany, and Davos, Switzerland) that cover an extended climatic gradient. We used this model and case study framework to examine the mechanisms and feedbacks that are driving short-term and long-term interactions among beetle disturbance, climate change a...

树皮甲虫（bark beetles）是全球范围内关键的森林干扰因子，其影响受气候、森林易感性，以及与风倒（windthrow）、火灾等其他干扰的交互作用共同调控。现有大量证据揭示了这些因子在小空间与时间尺度下的交互作用，但要预测其长期及景观尺度的影响仍是一项挑战。我们构建了一款集成甲虫物候与森林易感性的欧洲云杉树皮甲虫（Ips typographus）种群动态空间显式模型，并将其整合至气候敏感型景观模型（LandClim）中。我们首先在不同空间与时间尺度下验证了模型输出结果，随后将该模型应用于覆盖宽泛气候梯度的三项案例研究中（分别位于德国黑森林与瑞士达沃斯）。我们借助该模型与案例研究框架，探究驱动甲虫干扰、气候变化与……之间短期及长期交互作用的机制与反馈通路。