Data for "Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: A case study on the Italian grid"

Data employed for the paper "Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: A case study on the Italian grid"AbstractThis study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system's load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: i) air-conditioning demand; ii) thermal power outages; iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system's response to these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5-8 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially PV, alleviates the power system's vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. In fact, renewable energy sources are generally less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, compared to thermal power and hydropower generation. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable hydro generation.《减缓策略可缓解电力系统对气候变化与极端天气的脆弱性——以意大利电网为例》 摘要 本研究探讨气候变化对电力系统负荷与发电的复合影响，强调需将气候适应与减缓策略纳入投资规划范畴。我们结合既有实证研究与新颖实证证据，针对三类影响开展建模：一、空调用电需求；二、火力发电机组停运事件；三、水力发电短缺问题。本研究采用电力调度与容量扩张模型，整合气候减缓目标并以小时级时间分辨率优化成本效益，分析2030年意大利电力系统对上述气候变化影响的响应。我们设置多组气象情景，以分别探究平均气候变化与极端天气事件加剧所带来的影响。 研究表明，若要在电力系统规划中应对极端天气，需在仅满足气候减缓目标所需新增的50吉瓦太阳能光伏（photovoltaic, PV）装机容量的基础上，额外新增5-8吉瓦光伏装机。尽管初期投资有所提升，但采用可再生能源技术（尤其是光伏技术）可有效缓解电力系统对气候变化与极端天气的脆弱性。事实上，与火力发电和水力发电相比，可再生能源整体更不易受气候变化影响——包括气温上升与降水格局改变等各类扰动。此外，通过锂离子电池扩容短期储能系统，对抵消可调度水力发电可用性下降的影响至关重要。