Integrating socio-ecological suitability with human-wildlife conflict risk: Case study for translocation of a large ungulate

1. Translocations are essential for reestablishing wildlife populations.
As they sometimes fail, it is critical to assess factors that influence
their success pre-translocation. 2. Socio-ecological suitability models
(SESMs) integrate social acceptance and ecological suitability to enable
identification of areas where wildlife populations will expand, which
makes it likely that SESMs will also be useful for predicting
translocation success. 3. To inform site-selection for potential elk
(Cervus canadensis) reintroduction to northeastern Minnesota, USA, we
developed broad-scale maps of social acceptance from surveys of local
residents and landowners, animal use equivalence (AUE) from forage
measured in the field, and empirical conflict risk from geospatial data.
Resulting SESMs integrated social acceptance favorability scores, AUE, and
conflict risk, and weighted SESMs showed the relative influences of
acceptance and conflict. 4. Social acceptance was positive for local
residents and landowners (mean ≥ 5.4; scale of 1 to 7). AUE (scaled to an
elk home range) ranged between 1 and 9 elk/16 km2 during winter, and from
14 to 83 elk/16 km2 during summer. Human-elk conflict risk was low (mean ≤
0.10; scaled 0 to 1), increasing from north to south. Geographical
distributions differed for social acceptance, AUE, and conflict risk, and
weighted SESMs revealed unsuitable areas that were otherwise obscured. 5.
Synthesis and applications. Integrating human-wildlife conflict risk into
SESMs shows where social acceptance of translocated species is likely to
erode, even where viewed favorably pre-translocation, to inform
translocation planning by highlighting interactions between key factors.
Such integrated models supplement existing reintroduction biology
frameworks by supporting decision-making and knowledge development. In
northeastern Minnesota, natural resource managers who are considering elk
reintroductions are using SESMs reported here to identify where human-elk
conflict is likely to result in an isolated elk population and where
addressing concerns for area residents about conflict risk is essential.