Crime Climate Impact Distributions

Percentiles of crime impacts due to climate change, organized by level of aggregation, climate scenario, and time period. Crime impacts are estimated by applying future climate data to dose-response functions of property and violent crime rates, aggregated by population levels. The uncertainty represented by these percentiles comes from a combination of statistical uncertainty in the dose-response functions, climate uncertainty across GCMs, and within-month weather realization, as sampled by Monte Carlo runs. The archive contains four folders: county_20a with county-level impacts, state_20yr with state-aggregated impacts, nca_20yr with NCA-region aggregated impacts, and national_20y with nationally aggregated impacts. Aggregation is weighted by crimes within each region. The files are labeled as follow: crime-&lt;TYPE&gt;-&lt;RCP&gt;-&lt;YEAR&gt;&lt;SUFFIX&gt;. The TYPE can be property or violent crime. The RCP may be RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, or RCP 8.5; the years are "2020", for average impacts during 2020 - 2039, "2040" for impacts 2040 - 2059, and "2080" for impacts 2080 - 2099. Files with the suffix 'b.csv' contain percent changes; those with the suffix '-absolute.csv' contain level changes in MT. The columns of these files specify the region (using the FIPS code for counties), and the quantiles from 1% ("q0.01") to 99% ("q0.99"). <em>This data is provided for non-commercial research and educational purposes.</em>

本数据集收录了气候变化引发的犯罪影响百分位数结果，按聚合层级、气候情景与时间周期进行分类组织。犯罪影响通过将未来气候数据代入财产犯罪与暴力犯罪率的剂量反应（dose-response）函数进行估算，并以人口规模完成聚合。本数据集的百分位数结果所表征的不确定性，同时来源于剂量反应函数的统计不确定性、不同全球气候模式（GCMs）间的气候不确定性，以及经蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）抽样得到的月内天气样本实现。本数据集归档包含四个文件夹：分别为存储县级犯罪影响的county_20a文件夹、存储州级聚合结果的state_20yr文件夹、存储国家气候评估（NCA）区域聚合结果的nca_20yr文件夹，以及存储全国聚合结果的national_20y文件夹。聚合过程以各区域内的犯罪数作为权重。数据集文件命名规则如下：crime-<TYPE>-<RCP>-<YEAR><SUFFIX>。其中TYPE可选为财产犯罪或暴力犯罪；典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways，简称RCP）可选为RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0或RCP 8.5；年份标签“2020”代表2020-2039年的平均影响，“2040”代表2040-2059年的影响，“2080”代表2080-2099年的影响。后缀为‘b.csv’的文件存储百分比变化量；后缀为‘-absolute.csv’的文件存储以公吨（MT）为单位的绝对变化量。数据集文件的列字段分别为区域（县级数据使用联邦信息处理标准（Federal Information Processing Standards，简称FIPS）编码），以及1%分位数（标记为“q0.01”）至99%分位数（标记为“q0.99”）的各分位数值。本数据集仅可用于非商业性研究与教育用途。