GroMoPo Metadata for Dulce Stream Watershed groundwater pollution model

This paper proposes a modeling approach for assessing changes in groundwater pollution hazard under two different socio-economic and environmental scenarios: The first one considers an exponential growth of agriculture land-use (Relegated Sustainability), while the other deals with regional economic growth, taking into account, the restrictions put on natural resources use (Sustainability Reforms). The recent (2011) and forecasted (2030) groundwater pollution hazard is evaluated based on hydrogeological parameters and, the impact of land-use changes in the groundwater system, coupling together a land-use change model (Dyna-CLUE) with a groundwater flow model (MODFLOW), as inputs to a decision system support (EMDS). The Dulce Stream Watershed (Pampa Plain, Argentina) was chosen to test the usefulness and utility of this proposed method. It includes a high level of agricultural activities, significant local extraction of groundwater resources for drinking water and irrigation and extensive available data regarding aquifer features. The Relegated Sustainability Scenario showed a negative change in the aquifer system, increasing (+ 20%; high-very high classes) the contribution to groundwater pollution hazard throughout the watershed. On the other hand, the Sustainability Reforms Scenario displayed more balanced land-use changes with a trend towards sustainability, therefore proposing a more acceptable change in the aquifer system for 2030 with a possible 2% increase (high-very high classes) in groundwater pollution hazard. Results in the recent scenario (2011) showed that 54% of Dulce Stream Watershed still shows a moderate to a very low contribution to groundwater pollution hazard (mainly in the lower area). Therefore, from the point of view of natural resource management, this is a positive aspect, offering possibilities for intervention in order to prevent deterioration and protect this aquifer system. However, since it is quite possible that this aquifer status (i.e. groundwater quality) changes in the near future, the implementation of planning measures and natural resource management is recommended. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

本文提出了一种评估地下水污染风险变化建模方法，该方法考虑了两种不同的社会经济和环境情景：第一种情景考虑了农业用地使用的指数增长（归因于可持续性的局限），而第二种情景则关注区域经济增长，并考虑了对自然资源使用的限制（可持续性改革）。基于水文地质参数和地下水系统中土地利用变化的影响，通过将土地利用变化模型（Dyna-CLUE）与地下水流动模型（MODFLOW）相结合，作为决策支持系统（EMDS）的输入，评估了近期（2011年）和预测期（2030年）的地下水污染风险。选取了Dulce溪流域（阿根廷潘帕平原）作为测试该方法有效性和实用性的对象。该流域拥有高水平的农业活动，大量地下水资源的当地提取用于饮用和灌溉，以及关于含水层特征的丰富数据。可持续性局限情景显示，含水层系统发生了负面变化，整个流域地下水污染风险的贡献增加了（+20%；高度至非常高度等级）。另一方面，可持续性改革情景展示了更为平衡的土地利用变化趋势，并趋向于可持续性，因此为2030年含水层系统提出了更为可接受的变化，地下水污染风险可能仅增加2%（高度至非常高度等级）。近期情景（2011年）的结果表明，Dulce溪流域仍有54%的区域对地下水污染风险的贡献处于中等到非常低水平（主要在下游区域）。因此，从自然资源管理的角度来看，这是一个积极的方面，提供了干预的可能性，以防止恶化并保护该含水层系统。然而，鉴于含水层状况（即地下水质量）在未来可能发生变化，建议实施规划措施和自然资源管理。（C）2015年Elsevier B.V. 版权所有。