Replication Data for: Helping Without Hurting: Ameliorating the Negative Effects of Humanitarian Assistance on Civil Wars through Mediation

A growing body of literature (Narang 2015; Strandow, Findley, and Young 2016; Wood and Sullivan 2015) has suggested that, in the longrun, humanitarian aid, while well-intentioned, might be counterproductive to civil war conflict management because aid provides resources that help belligerents sustain their conflict, increasing the intensity of civil wars and lengthening their duration. This unintended consequence of humanitarian aid creates a paradox for policymakers. Those civil wars that are most resistant to settlement efforts generate the greatest need for humanitarian aid to limit the deadly effects of conflict on civilians. Yet, if humanitarian aid adds fuel to the fire of these same conflicts, making them more resistant to settlement and increasing the pain they impose upon civilians, policymakers might choose to avoid providing humanitarian assistance altogether in the hopes of hastening the end of the conflict. In this paper, I argue that while humanitarian aid can bring these unintended consequences, scholars have tended to overlook the way in which the combined effects of humanitarian aid and mediation can increase the likelihood of civil wars ending. I find that the combined effects of repeated mediation and high levels of humanitarian aid increase the likelihood both that conflicts will end and that they will terminate with peace agreements and cease-fires. This effect is especially strong for conflicts mediated by international organizations and major powers.

越来越多的文献（Narang 2015; Strandow, Findley, and Young 2016; Wood and Sullivan 2015）指出，从长期来看，人道主义援助（humanitarian aid）尽管初衷良善，却可能对内战冲突治理产生适得其反的效果：援助所提供的资源会帮助交战方维持冲突，加剧内战烈度并延长其持续时间。人道主义援助的这一意外后果，为政策制定者制造了一道悖论：那些最难以通过谈判解决的内战，恰恰最需要人道主义援助以限制冲突给平民带来的致命影响。然而，如果人道主义援助反而为这些冲突火上浇油，使其更难达成和解，且加剧其给平民造成的痛苦，政策制定者或许会选择完全停止提供人道主义援助，以期加速冲突的终结。在本文中，笔者认为，尽管人道主义援助会带来上述意外后果，但学者们往往忽略了人道主义援助与冲突调解（mediation）的联合效应能够提升内战终结可能性的路径。笔者发现，持续开展的冲突调解与大规模人道主义援助的联合效应，既能提升冲突终结的概率，也能提高冲突以和平协议与停火协定（cease-fires）告终的可能性。这一效应在由国际组织（international organizations）与大国主导调解的冲突中尤为显著。