Replication Data for: Economic Distress and Support for Radical Right Parties – Evidence from Sweden

This paper studies the effects of economic distress on support for radical right parties. Using Swedish election data, I show that one layoff notice among low-skilled native-born workers in creases, on average, support for the Swedish radical right party the Sweden Democrats by 0.17 to 0.45 votes. The relationship between layoff notices and support for the Sweden Democrats is stronger in areas with a high share of low-skilled immigrants, and in areas with a low share of high-skilled immigrants. These findings are in line with theories suggesting that economically distressed voters oppose immigration as they fear increased labor market competition. In addition, I use individual-level survey data to show that self-reported unemployment risk is positively associated with voting for the Sweden Democrats among low-skilled respondents while the opposite is true for high-skilled respondents, echoing the aggregate-level findings.

本研究探讨经济困境对极右翼政党支持率的影响。借助瑞典选举数据，本研究发现，本土出生的低技能劳动者每收到一份裁员通知，瑞典极右翼政党瑞典民主党（Sweden Democrats）的平均支持率将提升0.17至0.45个投票份额。在低技能移民占比较高、高技能移民占比较低的地区，裁员通知与瑞典民主党支持率之间的关联更为显著。上述发现与相关理论一致：经济困顿的选民因担忧劳动力市场竞争加剧而反对移民政策。此外，本研究通过个体层面调查数据进一步验证，低技能受访者的自我报告失业风险与投票支持瑞典民主党呈正相关，而高技能受访者则呈现相反关联，这与总体层面的研究发现相呼应。