Demographic responses of North Atlantic seabirds to seasonal ocean warming

This is data underlying the analysis in the study by Layton-Matthews et al. "Demographic responses of North Atlantic seabirds to seasonal ocean warming" in PNAS. Abstract Climate-driven ocean warming is profoundly reshaping marine ecosystems, with cascading effects on biodiversity and trophic interactions. For migratory marine predators such as seabirds, demographic responses to warming depend on when and where populations are exposed, across the annual cycle. Therefore, integrating demographic monitoring and tracking data, across broad geographic and temporal scales is essential, given the spatial and seasonal variability in ocean warming. Here, we integrated long-term demographic data, seasonal distributions and sea surface temperatures, for 26 populations of five seabird species breeding in the North-East Atlantic to assess the effects of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on reproduction, survival and population growth trajectories. Demographic responses varied widely among populations and seasons, but negative effects were most consistently associated with warming during the post-breeding autumn period, particularly in the Barents and East Greenland Seas. Winter warming also corresponded to reduced survival, while breeding-season SSTs showed fewer effects on reproductive rates. Populations with dual responses to warming in both the breeding and non-breeding seasons had the lowest projected population growth rates under SSTs given a high emissions scenario. These results demonstrate that population vulnerability reflects the interaction between seabirds’ year-round distributions and regional ocean warming. This underlines the need to integrate year-round tracking and long-term monitoring to inform conservation strategies and marine spatial planning to ensure climate-resilient marine ecosystems.本数据集为Layton-Matthews等人发表于《美国国家科学院院刊》（PNAS）的论文《北大西洋海鸟对季节性海洋变暖的种群响应》的分析支撑数据。 摘要 气候驱动的海洋变暖正在深刻重塑海洋生态系统，并对生物多样性与营养级互作产生级联效应。对于海鸟等洄游海洋捕食者而言，其种群对变暖的响应取决于全年周期中种群暴露于变暖环境的时间与地点。鉴于海洋变暖存在空间与季节异质性，因此在大地理与时间尺度上整合种群监测与追踪数据至关重要。 本研究整合了东北大西洋繁殖的5种海鸟共26个种群的长期种群数据、季节分布数据与海表温度（sea surface temperatures, SSTs）数据，以评估海表温度对繁殖率、存活率与种群增长轨迹的影响。不同种群与季节的种群响应差异显著，但负面影响与繁殖后秋季的海洋变暖关联最为一致，尤其在巴伦支海与东格陵兰海海域。冬季变暖同样与存活率下降相关，而繁殖季的海表温度对繁殖率的影响相对较小。在高排放情景下，同时在繁殖季与非繁殖季对变暖产生双重响应的种群，其预测种群增长率最低。 这些结果表明，种群脆弱性反映了海鸟全年分布与区域海洋变暖之间的相互作用。这凸显了整合全年追踪与长期监测数据的必要性，以助力制定保护策略与海洋空间规划，从而保障具备气候韧性的海洋生态系统。