Data from: Predicting the impacts of climate change on Papio baboon biogeography: are widespread, generalist primates ‘safe’?

Aims: To explore whether wide-ranging, generalist primates like baboons can be presumed ‘resilient’ in the face of climate change. We identify environmental variables influencing baboons’ current distributions and predict their future potential distributions under different climate change scenarios. Location: Africa and Arabia. Taxon: Baboons, Papio spp. Methods: We used localities for olive, yellow, Guinea, hamadryas, chacma and Kinda baboons together with high-resolution data on bioclimatic variables, altitude and vegetation to construct species distribution models (SDMs). These SDMs were run under current and future conditions, with future models based on three General Circulation Models (MIROC-ESM, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.5 and 6.0) for 2050 and 2070 to explore a range of different possible futures. Results: All SDMs produced AUC values >0.916 suggesting excellent overall performance. Altitude was the most important variable influencing Guinea baboon distributions (contributing 41.6%), temperature seasonality for olive and yellow baboons (47.5% and 35.4% respectively), precipitation of the driest month for hamadryas baboons (24.4%), annual mean precipitation for the Kinda baboon (45.1%) and mean temperature of the driest quarter for chacma baboons (41.4%). Chacma and Kinda baboons are predicted to suffer substantial habitat loss, and Guinea baboons may do the same if conditions aridify as climates warm. In contrast, all models for the olive and hamadryas baboons predicted an increase in suitable habitat and only smaller changes were predicted for the yellow baboon. Main conclusions: Two or three of six baboon taxa are at risk of significant habitat loss as climates warm despite their apparent ecological flexibility. The chacma and Kinda baboons (both IUCN listed as Least Concern) will be worst affected, followed by the Guinea baboon (Near Threatened) if warming brings aridification. We recommend more focus on biogeographic tools as a means of exploring vulnerabilities in seemingly resilient species.

研究目的：探究在气候变化背景下，诸如狒狒这类分布广泛、生态位泛化的灵长类动物是否可被视为“韧性物种”。本研究明确了影响狒狒当前分布的环境变量，并预测了不同气候变化情景下它们未来的潜在分布范围。
研究区域：非洲与阿拉伯半岛。
研究类群：狒狒属（*Papio* spp.）各类狒狒。
研究方法：我们收集了橄榄狒狒、黄狒狒、几内亚狒狒、阿拉伯狒狒、南非狒狒及金达狒狒的分布点数据，结合高分辨率的生物气候变量、海拔与植被数据，构建物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models, SDMs）。上述模型分别在当前与未来气候情景下运行；未来情景模型基于3种通用环流模型（MIROC-ESM、CCSM4及HadGEM2-ES），结合两种典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP2.5与RCP6.0），针对2050年与2070年两个时间节点展开模拟，以覆盖多种潜在未来气候场景。
研究结果：所有物种分布模型的AUC（曲线下面积）值均大于0.916，表明模型整体拟合效果极佳。其中，海拔是影响几内亚狒狒分布的最关键环境变量（贡献占比41.6%）；温度季节性波动对橄榄狒狒与黄狒狒的分布影响最大（贡献占比分别为47.5%与35.4%）；最干月降水量为阿拉伯狒狒分布的首要影响因子（贡献占比24.4%）；年平均降水量对金达狒狒的影响最为显著（贡献占比45.1%）；而干季平均温度则是影响南非狒狒分布的核心变量（贡献占比41.4%）。研究预测，南非狒狒与金达狒狒将面临适宜栖息地的大幅缩减；若气候变暖伴随干旱化加剧，几内亚狒狒也可能出现类似的栖息地损失。与之形成对比的是，所有模型均预测橄榄狒狒与阿拉伯狒狒的适宜栖息地面积将有所增加，而黄狒狒的适宜栖息地仅会发生小幅变化。
主要结论：尽管6类狒狒均具备较强的生态适应性，但其中2至3类在气候变暖背景下仍面临适宜栖息地大幅流失的风险。其中南非狒狒与金达狒狒（二者在世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）红色名录中均被列为“无危”）受影响最为严重；若气候变暖引发干旱化，几内亚狒狒（“近危”）也将受到显著冲击。本研究建议，应更加关注生物地理学工具的应用，以此探究看似具备生态韧性的物种所潜藏的生存脆弱性。