Causal effect of LUP

Title: Does zoning contain built-up land expansion? Causal evidence from Zhangzhou City, China. Research objective: Built-up land zoning is an imporatant policy measure of land use planning (LUP) to contain built-up land expansion in China. We used a difference-indifference model with propensity score matching to estimate the average and annual effect of built-up land zoning on built-up land expansion in Zhangzhou City, China between 2010 and 2020. Data: Data.dbf contains the varibles of 1662 villages in Zhangzhou Cities in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020. XZQDM2 is villages' unique administrative ID; Area is the land area of village i; Dis2water is the Euclidean distance from village i to the nearest waterbody; Dis2coastl is the Euclidean distance from village i to the nearest coastline; Dis2city is the the Euclidean distance from village i to the city center; Dis2county is the the Euclidean distance from village i to the nearest county center; Elevation is the the average elevation within village i; Dis2road is the the Euclidean distance from village i to the nearest road; Nei_Built_ is the the area of built-up land (Nei Built.upit) in the neighboring villages of village i in year t; Treated is a binary variable, Treated = 1 to the villages that were partially or entirely located inside the development-permitted zones, and Treated = 0 to the villages that were entirely located outside the development-permitted zones; Intensity is the percentage of land that was assigned to the development-permitted zones in village i; Year represent the year in 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020; BuLE is the dependent variable, representing built-up land expansion in village i in year t; Town is town' unique administrative ID. Method: First, we employed propensity score matching to overcome the selection bias and satisfy the parallel trend assumption. Second, we built four Difference-in-Difference models to estimate the average and annual effect.标题：土地分区（zoning）能否抑制建成区扩张？来自中国漳州市的因果实证证据 研究目标：建成区土地分区是中国土地利用规划（Land Use Planning, LUP）中用于抑制建成区扩张的重要政策手段。本研究采用结合倾向得分匹配（Propensity Score Matching, PSM）的双重差分模型（Difference-in-Difference Model），估算2010至2020年中国漳州市建成区土地分区对建成区扩张的平均效应与年度效应。 数据说明：Data.dbf文件包含1995、2000、2005、2010、2013、2015、2018及2020年漳州市1662个行政村的相关变量。具体变量说明如下： - XZQDM2：行政村唯一行政标识； - Area：行政村i的土地总面积； - Dis2water：行政村i到最近水体的欧氏距离（Euclidean distance）； - Dis2coastl：行政村i到最近海岸线的欧氏距离； - Dis2city：行政村i到城市中心的欧氏距离； - Dis2county：行政村i到最近县城中心的欧氏距离； - Elevation：行政村i辖区内的平均海拔； - Dis2road：行政村i到最近道路的欧氏距离； - Nei_Built_：t年份行政村i周边邻村的建成区面积（Nei Built.upit）； - Treated：二元虚拟变量，若行政村部分或全部位于开发许可区内，则Treated=1；若行政村全部位于开发许可区外，则Treated=0； - Intensity：行政村i内划入开发许可区的土地面积占比； - Year：对应年份，涵盖1995、2000、2005、2010、2013、2015、2018及2020年； - BuLE：因变量，代表t年份行政村i的建成区扩张规模； - Town：乡镇唯一行政标识。 研究方法：首先，本研究采用倾向得分匹配法以克服选择偏误并满足平行趋势假设；其次，构建四组双重差分模型以估算平均效应与年度效应。