Neonatal Mortality Forecasting in Somalia: A Comparative Time-Series Analysis of Single and Hybrid Models

This repository contains a reproducible time-series dataset and analytical outputs for neonatal mortality forecasting in Somalia. The dataset includes annual neonatal mortality rate (NMR) data for Somalia covering the period 1983–2023, obtained from the World Bank Open Data repository (Indicator: SH.DYN.NMRT). The data were cleaned, validated, and structured for time-series analysis. The study applies a comprehensive multi-model forecasting framework, including ARIMA, ETS, TBATS, Theta, ARFIMA, and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR), along with hybrid model combinations. Model performance was evaluated using standard accuracy metrics (MAPE, sMAPE, and Theil’s U). The archive includes:- Processed mortality dataset (CSV format)- Forecast results for 2024–2030 with prediction intervals (80% and 95%)- Model accuracy metrics for all models- R scripts for data preprocessing, stationarity testing (PP and KPSS), model fitting, and forecasting- Supplementary materials including tables, figures, and methodological documentation- README file explaining dataset structure, variables, and usage Forecast results indicate that neonatal mortality in Somalia is expected to stabilize at approximately 35 deaths per 1,000 live births over the forecast period, with increasing uncertainty over time. This archive ensures transparency, reproducibility, and open scientific access to the full analytical workflow. License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)本仓库包含可复现的时序数据集与配套分析产出成果，用于索马里新生儿死亡率预测研究。 该数据集涵盖1983年至2023年索马里年度新生儿死亡率（Neonatal Mortality Rate, NMR）数据，源自世界银行开放数据仓库，对应指标代码为SH.DYN.NMRT。所有数据均已完成清洗、验证与结构化处理，适配时序分析需求。 本研究采用综合多模型预测框架，涵盖ARIMA、ETS、TBATS、Theta、ARFIMA及神经网络自回归（Neural Network Autoregression, NNAR）等模型，并结合混合模型组合策略。模型性能通过标准精度指标（均绝对百分比误差MAPE、对称均绝对百分比误差sMAPE与Theil U统计量）进行评估。 本归档包含以下内容： - 已处理的死亡率数据集（CSV格式） - 2024年至2030年的预测结果（含80%与95%预测区间） - 所有模型的精度指标结果 - 用于数据预处理、平稳性检验（PP检验与KPSS检验）、模型拟合与预测的R脚本 - 补充材料，包含表格、图表与方法学文档 - 说明数据集结构、变量与使用方法的README文件 预测结果显示，索马里新生儿死亡率在预测期内将稳定在约每1000活产35例死亡的水平，且不确定性随时间逐步升高。 本归档保障了完整分析流程的透明度、可复现性与开放科学获取权限。 许可证：知识共享署名4.0（Creative Commons Attribution 4.0, CC BY 4.0）