From lab to nature: A novel temperature-dependent development model incorporating thermal evolution and plasticity

Development, a key biological process, is typically measured using laboratory populations under constant temperatures. However, these measurements may differ from natural reality due to the effects of rapid evolution and unnatural constant regimes, which have not been considered in the developmental models. Here, we measured the developmental time of laboratory and field populations of a global aphid pest at 9 constant and 9 fluctuating temperatures and quantified these two effects, constructed a new developmental model incorporating these two processes, and validated and applied the new model in 3 representative fields. We found that the evolutionary effect was more pronounced under constant than under fluctuating regimes. Ignoring evolutionary and thermal plasticity effects may overestimate the number of annual generations. Our new model accurately predicted development rate and annual generations using commonly available daily mean temperatures, and provided a template for the temperature-dependent developmental model incorporating evolutionary and plasticity effects for ectotherms.

发育作为核心生物学过程，传统上多依托恒温条件下的实验种群开展测定。然而，由于快速演化与非自然恒温环境的影响尚未被纳入发育模型，这类测定结果或与自然实际状况存在偏差。本研究针对一种全球性蚜虫害虫，分别在9种恒温与9种变温条件下测定了其实验种群与野外种群的发育时长，量化了上述两类影响因素；构建了纳入这两类过程的新型发育模型，并在3个典型野外生境中对该模型进行了验证与应用。研究发现，相较于变温环境，恒温环境下的演化效应更为显著。若忽略演化与温度可塑性效应，可能会高估年发生世代数。本研究所提出的新型模型可通过常规获取的日平均气温，准确预测发育速率与年发生世代数，同时为纳入演化与可塑性效应的外温动物（ectotherms）温度依赖型发育模型提供了参考范式。