Satellite Autonomous Identification System (S-AIS) Data Record of Maritime Ship Traffic, 2009-2016

The Arctic is prominent in the history of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), following the RMS Titanic disaster in 1912 and soon signing in London of the Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea in 1914. Eighty years later, the IMO initiated a process to manage shipping in ice-covered oceans. In concert with the IMO Guidelines for Ships Operating in Arctic Ice-Covered Waters in 2002 and their 2004 release of the Arctic 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, the Arctic Council initiated the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA), which issued its final report in 2009. The goal of this chapter is to build on AMSA as a case study of informed decisionmaking through the steps of questions to generate data, which are then integrated into evidence to reveal options (without advocacy), informing decisions by relevant institutions to address a ‘continuum of urgencies’ that involve shipping in the new Arctic Ocean with its transformed sea-ice cap, assessing whether shipping is increasing as sea ice is decreasing (‘ship-ice hypothesis’). Primary sources of data for AMSA involved ship tracking from ground-station Automatic Identification System (AIS), shore-based radar systems and details of fishing vessels as well as other smaller ships provided by the Arctic nations. However, Arctic ship traffic fundamentally changed the year of the AMSA report, when satellite AIS records began providing continuous, synoptic, pan-Arctic coverage of individual ships with data pulsed over seconds to minutes. This chapter reveals the oldest and longest continuous satellite AIS record (from 1 September 2009 through 31 December 2016), applying the ‘spacetime cube’ (which also was unavailable during AMSA) with more than 120,000,000 satellite AIS messages from SpaceQuest Ltd. to begin addressing synoptic questions with any level of granularity from points to regions to pan-Arctic over time. Future questions can be considered to assess ship attributes (including vessel flag state, size and type) in view of biophysical and socio-economic variables, recognizing that shipping and sea ice are recognized as primary drivers of change in the Arctic Ocean. Contributions to these assessments come from all areas of science (inclusively defined as the study of change), across the natural and social sciences with Indigenous knowledge in an holistic (international, interdisciplinary and inclusive) manner to achieve Arctic sustainability across generations. As a practical outcome in a user-defined manner, this chapter reveals characteristics of next-generation Arctic marine shipping assessments, revealing patterns and trends that can be applied to informed decisionmaking about the governance mechanisms and built infrastructure as well as operations for multilateral stability and sustainable development in the new Arctic Ocean.

北极在国际海事组织（International Maritime Organization, IMO）的发展历程中占据重要地位：1912年泰坦尼克号（RMS Titanic）海难发生后，国际海事组织于1914年在伦敦签署了《国际海上人命安全公约》。八十年后，国际海事组织启动了冰封海域航运管理相关工作。2002年，国际海事组织发布《北极冰封水域船舶航行指南》，并于2004年推出《北极气候影响评估》报告；与此同时，北极理事会（Arctic Council）启动了北极海洋航运评估（Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment, AMSA）项目，并于2009年发布最终报告。

本章旨在以AMSA为循证决策的案例研究展开延伸：通过设问生成数据，再将数据整合为佐证材料以揭示可行方案（不带有任何倾向性），为相关机构决策提供参考，以应对“紧迫性连续体”相关挑战——即涉及新北极海域的航运活动，该海域海冰覆盖已发生根本性改变；同时验证“船舶-海冰假说”：即随着海冰消退，北极航运活动是否呈增长趋势。

AMSA的核心数据来源包括：北极国家提供的地面站自动识别系统（Automatic Identification System, AIS）船舶追踪数据、岸基雷达系统数据，以及渔船及其他小型船舶的运营详情。但随着卫星自动识别系统记录开始实现对北极全域船舶的连续、同步覆盖（数据更新频率为秒至分钟级），北极航运格局发生了根本性变化，这也从根本上改写了AMSA报告的编制逻辑。

本章采用由SpaceQuest有限公司提供的超1.2亿条卫星自动识别系统报文，运用“时空立方体”（spacetime cube，该分析工具在AMSA编制阶段尚未问世），基于2009年9月1日至2016年12月31日的现有最长连续卫星自动识别系统记录，实现了从单点、区域到北极全域的多粒度时空同步分析，以解答全域性研究问题。

后续研究可结合生物物理与社会经济变量，对船舶属性（包括船旗国、船舶规模与船型）开展评估；目前学界已公认，航运活动与海冰变化是北极海洋环境变化的核心驱动因素。此类评估的研究贡献源自所有与“变化研究”相关的科学领域，涵盖自然科学与社会科学，并纳入原住民知识，以国际化、跨学科、包容性的整体视角，实现北极海域的代际可持续发展。

本章以用户定制化方式实现了一项实用成果：揭示了下一代北极海洋航运评估的核心特征，其所呈现的模式与趋势可用于为新北极海域的治理机制、基础设施建设以及相关运营提供决策参考，助力实现多边稳定与可持续发展。