FireMAFS (Fire Modelling and Forecasting System)

FireMAFS was led by Prof Martin Wooster (Kings College, London) as part of QUEST Theme 3 (Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System) project. This dataset collection contains the MODIS Land Cover Type product multiple classification schemes, which describe land cover properties derived from observations spanning a year’s input of Terra and Aqua data. The data are stored in a 10 arc minute grid. Fire was the most important disturbance agent worldwide in terms of area and variety of biomass affected, a major mechanism by which carbon is transferred from the land to the atmosphere, and a globally significant source of aerosols and many trace gas species. Despite such clear coupling between fire, climate, and vegetation, fire was not modelled as an interactive component of the climate/earth systems models of full complexity or intermediate complexity, that are used to model terrestrial ecosystem processes principally for simulating CO2 exchanges. The objective of FireMAFS was to resolve these limitations by developing a robust method to forecast fire activity (fire 'danger' indices, ignition probabilities, burnt area, fire intensity etc), via a process-based model of fire-vegetation interactions, tested, improved, and constrained. This used a state-of-the-art EO data products and driven by seasonal weather forecasts issued with many months lead-time. Much of the activity of FireMAFS was shaped by the research and technical priorities of QUESTESM (earth system model). Key activities included the progressive development of the JULES-ED and SPITFIRE submodels. Fire is now very well represented in QESM (Quest Earth System Model), making progress towards a modelling capability for fire risk forecasting in the context of global change.FireMAFS由伦敦国王学院的Martin Wooster教授牵头，作为QUEST主题3（量化与理解地球系统，Quantifying and Understanding the Earth System）项目的组成部分开展研究。 本数据集集合包含MODIS土地覆盖类型产品（MODIS Land Cover Type Product）的多分类方案，这些方案描述了基于Terra与Aqua卫星一年观测数据反演得到的土地覆盖属性。数据以10弧分网格格式存储。 火灾是全球范围内影响面积最广、受影响生物量种类最多的重要干扰因子，是碳从陆地向大气转移的核心途径之一，同时也是气溶胶与多种痕量气体的全球重要排放源。尽管火灾、气候与植被之间存在明确的耦合关系，但在用于模拟陆地生态系统过程（主要用于模拟二氧化碳交换）的全复杂度或中等复杂度气候/地球系统模型中，火灾并未被建模为具有交互作用的组成部分。 FireMAFS的研究目标正是解决这一局限：通过构建基于过程的火-植被相互作用模型，开发一套可靠的火灾活动预测方法（包括火灾“危险”指数、起火概率、过火面积、火灾强度等），并对该模型进行测试、优化与约束。该研究采用了前沿的地球观测（Earth Observation, EO）数据产品，并以提前数月发布的季节天气预报作为驱动数据。 FireMAFS的多数研究工作均围绕QUESTESM（地球系统模型）的研究与技术优先级展开。核心研究工作包括逐步开发JULES-ED与SPITFIRE子模型。 目前，火灾过程已在QESM（Quest地球系统模型，Quest Earth System Model）中得到充分表征，朝着全球变化背景下的火灾风险预测建模能力取得了实质性进展。