Determination of areas with release potential of snow avalanche in Sharr Mountains in the Republic of Kosovo

Avalanches represent a very high risk in residential areas, road infrastructure, environment, and economy, and can have fatal consequences if the human factors do not take any action. Advances in geospatial technology and access to spatial data have enabled spatial analysis to assist in decision-making regarding spatial planning in avalanche-prone locations. Determining locations with snow avalanche discharge potential is a crucial step in the avalanche zoning process. This research deals with areas with snow avalanche potential disjunction, based mainly on topographic factors followed by meteorological ones. Topographic factors were mainly determined according to morphometric techniques, which are achieved through geographic information systems (GIS), as well as meteorological ones from statistical data and various processing of spatial and non-spatial data. Spatial analysis are also supported by geostatistical methods Fuzzy Logic and AHP, which in interaction with GIS have enabled the achievement of the purpose of this paper. The results from the spatial analysis have been verified based on comparison methods, such as the ROC method which was used during this final phase, in which the analysis has shown that the methods used in this research have given satisfactory results. As the main result, we obtained maps of areas with snow avalanche potential discharge in the study area relating to two geostatistical methods.雪崩在居民区、道路基础设施、生态环境与经济领域均存在极高风险，若人类未采取防范举措，可能造成致命后果。随着地理空间技术的进步与空间数据的可获取性提升，空间分析已可用于辅助雪崩易发区域的空间规划决策。确定具备雪崩泄流潜力的区域，是雪崩分区流程中的关键环节。本研究聚焦于具备雪崩潜在风险的区域，主要以地形因子为核心依据，辅以气象因子。其中，地形因子主要通过地貌形态计量技术确定，该技术依托地理信息系统（GIS）实现；气象因子则源自统计数据，以及对空间与非空间数据的各类处理工作。空间分析还得到了包括模糊逻辑（Fuzzy Logic）与层次分析法（AHP）在内的地统计方法的支持，上述方法与GIS结合后，顺利达成了本研究的目标。空间分析的结果通过对比方法完成了验证，例如本研究最终阶段使用的受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线法，分析结果表明，本研究采用的方法取得了令人满意的效果。作为主要研究成果，我们结合两种地统计方法，生成了研究区内具备雪崩泄流潜力的区域分布图。