Local extinction risk under climate change in a neotropical asymmetrically dispersed epiphyte

1. The long-term fate of populations experiencing disequilibrium conditions with their environment will ultimately depend on how local colonization and extinction dynamics respond to abiotic conditions (e.g. temperature and rainfall), dispersal limitation and biotic interactions (e.g. competition, facilitation, or interactions with natural enemies). Understanding how these factors influence distributional dynamics under climate change is a major knowledge gap, particularly for small ranged and dispersal-limited plant species, which are at higher risk of extinction. Epiphytes are hypothesized to be particularly vulnerable to climate change and we know little about what drives their distribution and how they will respond to climate change. To address this issue, we leveraged a 10-year data set on the occupancy dynamics of the endemic orchid Lepanthes rupestris to identify the drivers of local colonization and extinction dynamics and assess the long-term fate of this population under multi...

1. 与环境处于非平衡状态的种群，其长期存续命运最终将取决于局域定居与灭绝动态对非生物条件（如温度、降雨）、扩散限制以及生物交互作用（如竞争、促进作用，或与自然天敌的相互作用）的响应模式。明晰上述因子在气候变化背景下如何影响种群分布动态，是当前学界的重大认知空白，对于分布范围狭小且扩散受限的植物类群而言尤甚——这类类群的灭绝风险显著更高。附生植物被推测对气候变化尤为脆弱，而目前学界对驱动其分布的核心因子以及它们将如何响应气候变化的认知仍极为有限。为解决这一科学问题，本研究依托针对特有兰花Lepanthes rupestris的位点占用动态所开展的10年数据集，旨在明确局域定居与灭绝动态的驱动因子，并评估该种群在多...情境下的长期存续命运。