Global change on the Roof of the World: vulnerability of Himalayan otter species to land-use and climate alterations

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (CCVA) prescribes the quantification of species vulnerability based on three components: sensitivity, adaptive capacity and exposure. Such assessments should be performed through combined approaches that integrate trait-based elements (e.g., measures of species sensitivity such as niche width) with correlative tools quantifying exposure (magnitude of changes in climate within species habitat). Furthermore, as land-use alterations may increase climate impacts on biodiversity, CCVAs should focus on both climate and land-use change effects. Unfortunately, most of such assessments have so far focused exclusively on exposure to climate change. 

We evaluated the vulnerability of three otter species occurring in the Himalayan region, i.e. Aonyx cinereus, Lutra lutra and Lutrogale perspicillata, to 2050 climate and land-use through the recently-proposed Climate Niche Factor Analysis (CNFA) framework combined with Species Distribution Models.

Future ...

气候变化脆弱性评估（Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, CCVA）明确了基于敏感性、适应能力与暴露度三个组分对物种脆弱性进行量化的标准方法。此类评估需采用整合基于性状的要素（例如，衡量物种敏感性的指标如生态位宽度）与量化暴露度相关工具（即物种栖息地内的气候变化幅度）的联合研究范式开展。此外，由于土地利用变化可能加剧气候变化对生物多样性的负面影响，气候变化脆弱性评估应同时关注气候变化与土地利用变化的综合效应。但遗憾的是，截至目前绝大多数此类评估仅聚焦于气候变化暴露度。

本研究依托新近提出的气候生态位因子分析（Climate Niche Factor Analysis, CNFA）框架，并结合物种分布模型，评估了分布于喜马拉雅地区的3种水獭——亚洲小爪水獭（Aonyx cinereus）、欧亚水獭（Lutra lutra）与江獭（Lutrogale perspicillata）——至2050年时面临的气候变化与土地利用变化脆弱性。
未来……