Agricultural commodities: September quarter 2018

Overview \r\n The September edition of Agricultural commodities contains ABARES latest outlook for Australia's key agricultural commodities in 2018-19, which updates the outlook released in June 2018. \r\n\r\nKey Issues \r\n• In 2018-19 the value of farm production is forecast to be relatively unchanged at $60 billion. \r\n• Dry conditions are affecting agricultural production in eastern Australia, but strong forecast production in Western Australia, rising grain prices, high livestock prices and a lower Australian dollar are providing support to farm incomes. \r\n• Export prices are forecast to increase by around 3% in 2018-19, driven by a decline in the global supply of grains and strong demand for meat products. \r\n• Downside risks to Australian agriculture include uncertainty around the duration of the drought in impacted areas, the timing and amount of rain in other regions, and possible disruption to world agricultural markets stemming from protectionist trade measures. \r\nCommodity production forecasts \r\n• The value of crop production is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ The decline is expected to be driven by a forecast decline in area planted in the eastern states. Drought conditions across eastern Australia restricted planting opportunities for crops, such as barley, canola and wheat. \r\n◦ Higher forecast prices for canola, coarse grains, cotton and wheat are expected to mitigate the impact of lower crop volumes on the value of production. \r\n◦ Wine grape and sugar production are forecast to rise as producing areas have been less affected by drought. The value of sugar production is nevertheless forecast to decline due to weak international prices. \r\n◦ Horticultural production has increased following a warm winter, boosting production of a range of fruits and vegetables \r\n\r\n• The value of livestock production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $30 billion in 2018-19. ◦ Drought in the eastern states has increased cattle and sheep turn-off, lifting meat production and leading to a forecast reduction in herd size. \r\n◦ Dairy production is forecast to increase, as processors continue to offer relatively high milk prices. However, the production response is likely to be dampened by increasing feed and fodder costs. \r\n◦ Wool production is forecast to be lower, constrained by lower flock numbers and poor grazing conditions. \r\n\r\n\r\nCommodity export forecasts \r\n• Export earnings for farm commodities are forecast to be $47 billion in 2018-19, down 5 per cent from $49 billion in 2017-18 \r\n• The decline in export earnings is largely due to lower exportable supplies of canola, coarse grains, pulses and wheat and increased domestic demand for grain. Agricultural export prices, measured by the index of unit export returns, are forecast to increase by 3% in 2018-19. ◦ Export earnings are forecast to decline in 2018-19 for canola (down 39 per cent), coarse grains (24 per cent), wheat (10 per cent), sugar (9 per cent), wool (2 per cent) and wine (1 per cent). Export earnings for beef and veal and live feeder/slaughter cattle are unchanged. \r\n\r\n• Export earnings are forecast to be supported by strong demand from Asia and advanced economies for Australian livestock and livestock products. Higher prices for wheat, coarse grains and cotton are also expected to support earnings. ◦ In 2018-19 export earnings are forecast to rise for lamb (up 17 per cent), rice (14 per cent), mutton (13 per cent), cotton (9 per cent), cheese (6 per cent) and rock lobster (3 per cent). \r\n\r\n• Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2018-19 to $1.6 billion, after increasing by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017-18. \r\n\r\nAssumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts \r\n\r\n Forecasts of commodity production and exports are based on global and domestic demand and supply assumptions. \r\n\r\n• On the demand side, stronger world economic growth will translate to higher per person incomes in most of Australia's export markets, supporting stronger demand. ◦ World economic growth is assumed to be 3.9 per cent in 2018 and 2019. \r\n◦ Economic growth in Australia is assumed to be 3.0 per cent in 2018-19. \r\n◦ The Australian dollar is assumed to average US74 cents in 2018-19, lower than the assumed average of US78 cents in 2017-18. \r\n\r\n• On the supply side, Australian agricultural production prospects are assumed to be below average. ◦ Dry conditions are forecast to have significant implications for crop yields and livestock production cycles in the eastern states. \r\n\r\n Uncertainties that could affect agricultural commodity production and export growth include supply shocks in Australia or international markets (such as natural disasters, drought and disease outbreaks) or unexpected economic events that affect trade and economic growth. \r\n\r\nBoxes on agricultural issues \r\n\r\nEvolving EU biodiesel policies \r\n\r\n• Proposed changes to the EU renewable fuels policy could increase demand for Australia's canola exports in the short to medium term. \r\n• Since 2010-11 the European Union has been the largest export market for Australian canola. Most canola is imported to produce renewable transport fuel. \r\n

概述
本次《农业大宗商品》9月刊收录了澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）对2018至2019财年澳大利亚主要农业大宗商品的最新展望，该报告更新了2018年6月发布的前期展望内容。

核心议题
• 2018至2019财年，澳大利亚农业产值预计维持在600亿澳元，基本无波动。
• 澳大利亚东部的干旱天气正影响农业生产，但西澳大利亚州的预计增产、谷物价格上涨、畜牧产品高价以及澳元贬值，均为农户收入提供了支撑。
• 受全球谷物供应缩减及肉类产品需求强劲拉动，2018至2019财年出口价格预计上涨约3%。
• 澳大利亚农业面临的下行风险包括：受影响地区干旱持续时长的不确定性、其他地区降雨的时机与降雨量，以及保护主义贸易举措可能对全球农业市场造成的扰动。

大宗商品产量预测
• 2018至2019财年，农作物产值预计下降3%，至300亿澳元。
◦ 此次下滑主要源于东部各州预计播种面积减少。澳大利亚东部的干旱天气限制了大麦、油菜籽、小麦等作物的播种机会。
◦ 油菜籽、粗粮、棉花及小麦的预计价格上涨，将缓解作物产量下滑对农业产值造成的冲击。
◦ 由于产区受干旱影响较小，葡萄及食糖产量预计有所提升。不过受国际价格疲软影响，食糖产值仍预计下滑。
◦ 冬季气温偏高推动了各类果蔬的生产，园艺产业产值有所增长。

• 2018至2019财年，畜牧产品产值预计增长2%，至300亿澳元。
◦ 东部各州的干旱推高了牛羊出栏量，带动肉类产量提升，同时预计畜群规模将有所缩减。
◦ 由于乳制品加工商持续提供较高的牛奶收购价，乳制品产量预计有所增长，但饲料及草料成本的上涨可能抑制增产幅度。
◦ 受畜群规模缩减及放牧条件恶劣的限制，羊毛产量预计有所下滑。

大宗商品出口预测
• 2018至2019财年，农业大宗商品出口收入预计为470亿澳元，较2017至2018财年的490亿澳元下降5%。
• 出口收入下滑主要源于油菜籽、粗粮、豆类及小麦的可出口供应量减少，同时国内谷物需求有所上升。以单位出口回报指数计算的农业出口价格，预计在2018至2019财年上涨3%。
◦ 2018至2019财年，多项农产品的出口收入预计下滑：油菜籽（下降39%）、粗粮（下降24%）、小麦（下降10%）、食糖（下降9%）、羊毛（下降2%）及葡萄酒（下降1%）。牛肉及小牛肉、鲜活育肥/屠宰牛的出口收入则保持不变。

• 亚洲及发达经济体对澳大利亚畜牧产品及制品的强劲需求，将对出口收入形成支撑。小麦、粗粮及棉花的价格上涨也将助力出口收入提升。
◦ 2018至2019财年，以下农产品的出口收入预计实现增长：羊肉（上涨17%）、大米（上涨14%）、成年羊肉（上涨13%）、棉花（上涨9%）、奶酪（上涨6%）及岩龙虾（上涨3%）。

• 渔业产品出口收入预计在2018至2019财年增长2%，至16亿澳元，2017至2018财年该收入预计已增长10%。

本次大宗商品预测的假设前提
大宗商品产量与出口预测基于全球及国内的供需假设。

• 需求端：全球经济增长走强将带动澳大利亚多数出口市场的人均收入提升，从而拉动需求增长。
◦ 假设2018年及2019年全球经济增长率为3.9%。
◦ 假设2018至2019财年澳大利亚国内经济增长率为3.0%。
◦ 假设2018至2019财年澳元平均汇率为74美分，低于2017至2018财年假设的78美分平均汇率。

• 供给端：假设澳大利亚农业生产前景低于平均水平。
◦ 干旱天气预计将对东部各州的作物单产及畜牧生产周期造成显著影响。

可能影响农业大宗商品产量与出口增长的不确定性因素包括：澳大利亚或国际市场的供应冲击（如自然灾害、干旱及疫病暴发），以及影响贸易与经济增长的突发经济事件。

农业议题专题专栏
欧盟生物柴油政策的最新动态
• 欧盟可再生燃料政策的拟议修订，将在中短期内提升澳大利亚油菜籽出口的需求。
• 自2010至2011财年起，欧盟已成为澳大利亚油菜籽最大的出口市场，其中绝大多数油菜籽被用于生产可再生交通燃料。