Wildfire Climatology and Composites for Pattern Identification across New York State

Although New York State is not typically thought of as an area prone to wildfires, statistics show that the state averages 182 Forest Ranger reported fires per year. Thus, there is a need for meteorological composite patterns to identify and recognize the conditions affecting wildfire potential. Wildfire data from 2000-2017 acquired from the New York Department of Environmental Conservation Forest Rangers was examined and spatially plotted using GIS software to create a New York wildfire climatology. While 32% of these wildfires were less than one acre, and nearly 89% were less than 10 acres, this study raises awareness of wildfires throughout every region across the Empire State. Graphs of annual and monthly occurrence, total acres burned, and wildfire cause (both frequency and location) are included in this examination. The top five most active New York wildfire days and top five days with the most acres burned during the 2000-2017 study period were used to build weather composites using the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). Forecasters can use these composites of 500 hPa heights, mean sea level pressure, and 850 hPa vector wind to develop meteorological pattern recognition for potential wildfire activity in New York State. This, combined with knowledge of the seasonal state of fuels together with historical wildfire sources and activity, may help to increase forecaster awareness to both potential Red Flag days and active wildfire days.