Replication Data for: Presidential voting and the local economy

We show that standard economic measures based on samples and richer newly available ones based on populations lead to strikingly different conclusions about democratic accountability. Previous research, which has primarily relied on sample-based measures, has mostly missed an important determinant of presidential election outcomes: the local economy. We detect the local economy’s impact with two unique datasets, one of which includes data on all consumer loans made in California and the other a census of businesses. In contrast to measures subject to sampling error, these population-based measures indicate that economic conditions at the zip code and county level have a substantial impact on presidential election outcomes. Presidents therefore face incentives to focus on electorally important geographic regions.

我们的研究表明，基于抽样的标准经济测度 (standard economic measures based on samples) 与更丰富且新近推出的基于总体的测度 (population-based measures)，在民主问责制 (democratic accountability) 相关议题上得出了截然不同的结论。此前的研究主要依赖基于抽样的测度方法，因而大多忽略了总统选举结果的一项重要影响因素：地方经济。我们依托两套独特的数据集，揭示了地方经济的影响：其中一套涵盖加利福尼亚州全部消费贷款数据，另一套则为企业普查数据 (census of businesses)。与易受抽样误差 (sampling error) 影响的测度方法不同，这些基于总体的测度结果显示，邮政编码区域 (zip code) 和县一级的经济状况对总统选举结果具有显著影响。因此，总统将有动力将施政重心置于对选举至关重要的地理区域。