LOCA2-Ensemble SSP5-8.5 Energy Indicators

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: Cooling degree (F) days Heating degree (F) days This layer uses data from the LOCA2 downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System, 缩写CRIS）为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具支持。本图层包含1950年至2100年以十年为步长的变量预估数据，覆盖三种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, 缩写SSPs）。涉及的变量包括：华氏度冷却度日、华氏度加热度日。 本图层所用数据来自针对美国本土的LOCA2降尺度气候模型。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 缩写NOAA）下属CICS-NC技术支持单元与Esri公司所做的后续处理流程详见下文。 针对每个时间节点与SSP场景，已针对预设的三类地理单元——县、部落辖区、HUC-8流域——计算得到最小值、最大值与平均值。此类汇总数据的生成流程可参阅《CRIS数据解读》（Understanding CRIS Data）。 可针对时间与地理单元的组合，获取由16个气候预估模型加权集成后的结果。关于集成模型集与加权方法的更多细节，可参阅《CRIS数据制备指南》（CRIS Data Preparation）。 其他气候变量可从CRIS官网的数据图库页面获取，或通过下表查阅。后续将新增覆盖阿拉斯加、夏威夷与波多黎各的地理单元数据。 地理单元 本图层提供三类地理单元的预估数据：县、部落辖区与HUC-8流域。 县：基于美国人口普查局2022版TIGER/Line矢量数据集。 部落辖区：基于美国人口普查局2022版美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民/夏威夷原住民区域数据集，该数据集包含联邦与州政府认可的统计区域。 HUC-8流域：基于美国地质调查局（United States Geological Survey, 缩写USGS）的水洗边界数据集（Washed Boundary Dataset），该数据集属于国家高精度水文数据库增强版（National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution）的一部分。 时间范围 气候阈值预估数据（例如90°F以上天数）的计算时段为2005年至2100年的逐年数据；此外还包含1951年至2005年的模型历史模拟结果。模型历史模拟数据与未来预估数据已合并为单一时序序列，并按十年为单位进行平均处理。 气候情景 气候模型通过模拟温室气体浓度与人类活动的未来情景，预估气候整体变化趋势，此类不同情景统称为共享社会经济路径（SSPs）。本数据集提供三种SSP情景：2-4.5、3-7.0与5-8.5（注：STAR未收录SSP3-7.0）。 横杠前的数字代表社会行为情景类型，横杠后的数字则代表2100年时对应温室气体浓度情景的辐射强迫强度（单位：瓦每平方米），辐射强迫越高则变暖程度越显著。 目前尚无明确证据表明哪种情景最贴合实际发展，但SSP2-4.5目前与《联合国气候变化框架公约》第26次缔约方大会（COP-26）达成的国际减排目标相符。基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最贴合实际的情景。SSP5-8.5则作为警戒情景，代表未采取温室气体减排措施时的最坏情况。 数据导出 支持将本数据集导出为Shapefile、地理数据库、GeoJSON等格式。