The survival-reproduction association becomes stronger when conditions are good

Positive covariations between survival and reproductive performance (S-R covariation) are generally interpreted in the context of fixed or dynamic demographic heterogeneity (i.e., persistent differences between individuals, or dynamic variation in resource acquisition), but the processes underlying covariations are still unknown. We used multi-event modelling to investigate how environmental and individual features influence S-R covariation patterns in a long-lived seabird, the Monteiro’s storm-petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi). Our analysis reveals that a strong positive association between individual breeding success and subsequent survival occurs only when conditions are favourable to reproduction (in favourable years, in high quality nests and in nest-faithful breeders). This finding reflects differences in the main causes of breeding failure and mortality under favourable and unfavourable conditions, which in turn lead to distinct patterns of S-R covariation. We suggest, in particular...

生存与繁殖表现间的正协变（S-R covariation）通常被置于固定或动态种群异质性的框架下解读，即个体间存在持久差异，或是资源获取的动态变化，但协变背后的核心机制仍未明确。我们采用多事件建模（multi-event modelling）的方法，针对一种长寿命海鸟——孟氏暴风海燕（Oceanodroma monteiroi），探究环境与个体特征如何影响S-R协变模式。分析结果显示，个体繁殖成功率与后续存活率之间的强正相关，仅在繁殖条件适宜时才会显现：具体包括繁殖适宜年份、高质量巢址，以及忠于原巢的繁殖个体中。这一发现反映了适宜与不适宜繁殖条件下，繁殖失败与死亡的主要成因存在差异，进而催生了截然不同的S-R协变模式。我们特别提出……