Supporting Data and Results for "Characterizing uncertainties in residential electrification: Financial feasibility, climate impacts, and health outcomes"

Article Abstract: Low-to-moderate-income (LMI) families in the United States face disproportionately high energy costs due to inefficient housing and systemic underinvestment, conditions that stem in part from discriminatory housing policies (e.g., redlining and exclusionary zoning). With uncertain federal support, state and local authorities need evidence-based strategies for equitable electrification initiatives. This study enhances the Tradeoff Analysis of Residential retrofits for Energy equity (TARE) model for retrofit adoption potential, considering both effects from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and a comprehensive societal impact assessment. Heat pump water heaters demonstrate nearly universal adoption potential, with LMI adoption reaching 96-99% for delivered fuel users. Air-source heat pump (ASHP) retrofits show fuel-specific adoption trends in LMI households, ranging from 2% (natural gas) to 67% (fuel oil), with diminishing returns for enclosure upgrades. Climate impacts were evaluated using three social cost of carbon bounds, while health co-benefits were quantified using six methodologies combining reduced-complexity models (InMAP, EASIUR, AP2) with two concentration-response functions. Electrifying space heating in 85-96% of households would improve public health through reduced air pollution exposure. Furthermore, accounting for societal benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions increases economically viable retrofits from 16% (private costs only) to 53-67% (including monetized climate benefits). Results suggest that decision-makers should prioritize heat pump water heaters as key electrification policy entry points and design fuel-specific approaches for space heating. The expanded framework provides decision-makers with quantitative tools for equitable energy transition planning and can be adapted locally to expedite technical assistance for historically underserved populations.论文摘要： 美国低收入与中等收入（Low-to-moderate-income, LMI）家庭面临着不成比例的高额能源成本，这一困境源于住房能效低下与系统性投资不足，而此类状况在一定程度上源自歧视性住房政策（如红线区划政策与排他性分区政策）。在联邦支持存在不确定性的背景下，各州及地方政府亟需基于实证的策略，以推进公平电气化举措。本研究针对改造采纳潜力，对住宅能源公平权衡分析（Tradeoff Analysis of Residential retrofits for Energy equity, TARE）模型进行了拓展，同时纳入了《通胀削减法案》（Inflation Reduction Act, IRA）的影响效应与全面的社会影响评估。 热泵热水器展现出近乎全域的采纳潜力，使用配送燃料的LMI家庭采纳率可达96%至99%。空气源热泵（Air-source heat pump, ASHP）改造在LMI家庭中呈现出燃料特异性的采纳趋势，采纳率区间为2%（天然气用户）至67%（燃油用户），且围护结构升级的边际效益呈递减态势。本研究采用三类碳社会成本阈值评估气候影响，并结合六种方法量化健康协同效益：这些方法将低复杂度模型（InMAP、EASIUR与AP2）与两类浓度-响应函数相结合。在85%至96%的家庭中实现采暖电气化，可通过降低空气污染暴露水平改善公共健康状况。此外，若将温室气体减排带来的社会收益纳入考量，经济上可行的改造比例将从仅考虑私人成本时的16%提升至53%至67%（含货币化气候收益）。 研究结果表明，决策者应将热泵热水器作为电气化政策的核心切入点予以优先推进，并针对不同燃料用户设计差异化的采暖改造方案。该拓展模型框架可为决策者提供用于公平能源转型规划的量化工具，且可结合地方实际进行调整，以加快为历史上服务不足的群体提供技术援助的进程。