Replication Data for \"Jihadist terrorist attacks and far right party preferences: An ‘unexpected event during survey design’ in four European countries\"

This article presents new empirical evidence about the impact of Jihadist terrorist attacks on far right preferences using the ‘unexpected event during survey’ research design. This strategy allows us to match individual-level data from the European Social Survey (ESS) to data on Jihadist terrorist attacks to compare respondents’ party preferences before and after a terrorist attack during the same survey period in the Netherlands, Sweden, France and Germany. We theorise and test three distinct hypotheses about how different combinations of attitudinal changes including out-group prejudice and trust in institutions impact on far right preferences. We find no statistically significant effects. Analyses of the two indirect mechanisms- i.e., prejudice and trust- yield mixed results consistent with the null effect on far right party preferences. By showing that terrorist attacks are unlikely to decisively change party support despite attracting significant public attention and affecting political attitudes, our results challenge the argument that Jihadist terrorism necessarily benefits the far-right and highlight the importance of null effects for overcoming confirmation bias in the study of voting behaviour. (2023-12-01)

本文采用「调查期间突发意外事件」研究设计，提供了关于圣战主义恐怖袭击（Jihadist terrorist attacks）对极右翼政治偏好（far right preferences）影响的全新经验证据。该研究策略可将欧洲社会调查（European Social Survey, ESS）的个体层面数据，与圣战主义恐怖袭击事件数据进行匹配，以此对比荷兰、瑞典、法国与德国四国在同一项调查周期内，受访对象在恐怖袭击发生前后的政党偏好差异。我们提出并检验了三项差异化假说，探讨群体外偏见（out-group prejudice）、制度信任等态度变化的不同组合如何影响极右翼政治偏好。研究未发现具有统计显著性的影响效应。针对偏见与信任这两项间接传导机制的分析结果呈现混合特征，与极右翼政党偏好不存在显著影响的零效应（null effect）结论相符。本研究结果表明，尽管恐怖袭击事件会引发公众广泛关注并对政治态度产生影响，但不太可能从根本上改变政党支持格局；这一发现驳斥了「圣战主义恐怖主义必然会惠及极右翼势力」的观点，并凸显了零效应研究在破解投票行为（voting behaviour）研究中确认偏误（confirmation bias）的重要价值。(2023-12-01)