China and the WTO: Will the Market Economy Status make any difference after 2016?

China’s Protocol of Accession to the World Trade Organization, signed on December 2001, allowed other country members to consider China as a Non-Market Economy (NME) until the end of 2016. The aim of this article is to answer the following question: Can the Market Economy Status (MES) Recognition be measured in its compliance? The proxy used for that compliance was the number of antidumping investigations initiated per country. The expectation is that countries recognizing Chinese MES would initiate fewer antidumping investigations than countries still treating China as a NME. This would explain why the Chinese government has been campaigning vigorously since 2001 to gain MES among its economic partners. Using count-models, we demonstrate that MES had a positive impact in reducing the number of antidumping investigations against Chinese products.

2001年12月签署的《中国加入世界贸易组织议定书》（China’s Protocol of Accession to the World Trade Organization）规定，其他世界贸易组织成员可将中国视为非市场经济体（Non-Market Economy, NME），直至2016年年末。本文旨在解答如下研究问题：市场经济地位（Market Economy Status, MES）认定能否通过合规性水平进行量化评估？本文以各国发起的反倾销调查数量作为该合规性的代理指标。研究预期，承认中国市场经济地位的国家，其针对中国产品发起的反倾销调查数量将少于仍将中国视作非市场经济体的国家。这一结论亦可解释为何中国政府自2001年起便在各经贸伙伴间大力开展游说工作，以争取获得市场经济地位。本文采用计数模型（count-models）开展实证分析，结果表明，市场经济地位认定对减少针对中国产品的反倾销调查具有显著的正向抑制作用。