Bridging Hydroclimatic Evidence and Strategic Conflict Analysis: A TWINS–GMCR+ Assessment of Iran–Iraq Hydropolitical Relations in the Tigris–Euphrates Transboundary Hydrosystem

This repository provides the supplementary reproducibility package for the GMCR+ analyses presented in the manuscript “Bridging Hydroclimatic Evidence and Strategic Conflict Analysis: A TWINS–GMCR+ Assessment of Iran–Iraq Hydropolitical Relations in the Tigris–Euphrates Transboundary Hydrosystem.” The package contains the model inputs and supporting data required to reconstruct the two GMCR+ games used in the study. The first game represents the broader strategic interaction among Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, while the second game focuses on the Iran–Iraq interaction associated with the Lesser Zab and Sirwan–Diyala rivers. The deposited files include: decision makers and strategic options for each game; complete feasible-state matrices; logical and contextual constraints used to exclude infeasible states; complete ordinal preference rankings for all decision makers; supporting rationale for preference construction; sensitivity-analysis perturbations and resulting equilibrium structures; and additional machine-readable tables supporting model reconstruction and verification. The GMCR+ analyses were implemented using GMCRplus v0.4 6Bit. The deposited files are intended to improve transparency, reproducibility, and independent verification of the strategic conflict analyses reported in the manuscript. The repository does not contain probabilistic scenario forecasts. The scenario configurations reported in the manuscript are comparative strategic pathways derived from the retained GMCR+ equilibria and subsequent social-choice screening.