A global dataset of effort-corrected shifts in recorded species distributions from GBIF, 1950–2025

Effort-corrected rates of change in where land and freshwater species of plants, animals, fungi and protists were recorded in GBIF between 1950 and 2025. For each species and hemisphere, a conditional Poisson model with cell and year effects and the recording effort of the species' order (distinct sampling dates per 0.5° cell and year) gives poleward, thermal-position and east–west shift rates with standard errors. Elevational shift rates are given for species in mountain regions, estimated from records at 30 arc-seconds with the recording visits of the species' class as effort. Analysable latitudinal shifts are given for 119,416 species-units (116,483 species) and elevational shifts for 87,653 species; 105,770 species were excluded as marine. The record contains the main estimates; estimates from specimens only, from observations only and without iNaturalist and eBird; alternative analyses (effort elasticity, year bins, periods, flagged records, class-level effort, units meeting twice the inclusion thresholds) and a placebo period (1901–1950); components of the shift vectors along the local climate velocity and along isotherms; estimates from standardized monitoring datasets; group means; the climate of the 0.5° cells; the recording effort of the orders; the species excluded as marine; calibration results; a data dictionary; and the analysis code, configuration and computing environment. Source data: GBIF occurrence downloads listed under related identifiers; climate from CRU TS 4.10.