Pilot project: Integration of a climate module into the long-term budget forecast.

On behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance, Federal Environment Agency experts have drawn up two scenarios for the development of greenhouse gas emissions: a baseline scenario and an activity scenario (reflecting the energy transformation). For 2030, Austria’s emissions are around 10.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents above the EU target in the baseline scenario and around 6 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents below the EU target in the activity scenario. In both scenarios, the model calculations result in steady economic growth. Investments are clearly in the activity scenario and value added is slightly above the level of the baseline scenario. Employment and private consumption are somewhat dampened by the higher price and wage levels in the activity scenario. From 2040, lower electricity prices will reduce annual price and wage inflation in the activity scenario and employment and consumption will grow more strongly than in the baseline scenario.受奥地利联邦财政部委托，奥地利联邦环境署专家针对温室气体排放的变化趋势制定了两类情景：基准情景与反映能源转型的行动情景。在基准情景下，奥地利2030年的温室气体排放量较欧盟减排目标高出约1040万吨二氧化碳当量；而在行动情景中，该排放量较欧盟目标低约600万吨二氧化碳当量。两类情景的模型测算结果均显示经济将保持稳定增长。行动情景下的投资规模显著更高，增加值亦略高于基准情景水平。受行动情景中更高的物价与薪资水平影响，就业与私人消费受到一定抑制。2040年起，行动情景中更低的电价将拉低年度物价与薪资通胀率，就业与私人消费的增速也将高于基准情景。