Hourly Electricity Demand Projections for Eight Combined Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of simulated historical hourly electricity demand (i.e., loads) and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly loads for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) and 48 states plus the District of Columbia. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. The two primary models that created the dataset are a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with detailed sectoral resolution over the United States (GCAM-USA) and the Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. Links to the model source code and workflow for deriving the dataset are provided in an accompanying meta-repository: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2023_applied_energy. Projections are for four future climate scenarios that represent combinations of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 combined with two levels of climate model sensitivities: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. The four climate scenarios are crossed with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5 to yield eight different future load projections: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotter_ssp3, and rcp85hotter_ssp5. The climate scenarios are from the IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) dataset which is linked below in the related metadata. The related metadata also contains links to a repository containing the raw GCAM-USA output files.

本数据集包含1980年至2019年共40年的模拟历史逐小时电力需求（即电力负荷），以及2020年至2099年共80年的预测逐小时电力负荷，覆盖范围涵盖54个电力平衡管理机构（Balancing Authorities, BAs）以及美国48个州与哥伦比亚特区。
本数据集所包含的情景与变量细节详见readme.pdf文件。
构建本数据集的两款核心模型分别为适配美国详细部门分辨率的全球变化分析模型（Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM-USA）以及总电力负荷（Total Electricity Loads, TELL）模型。
本数据集的模型源代码与推导流程的相关链接，详见配套元仓库：https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/burleyson-etal_2023_applied_energy。
该数据集的预测情景基于四类未来气候情景，即典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs）4.5与8.5分别搭配两类气候模型敏感度组合，分别为rcp45cooler、rcp45hotter、rcp85cooler及rcp85hotter。
上述四类气候情景将与共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）3及5进行组合，最终得到8种不同的未来电力负荷预测情景，分别为rcp45cooler_ssp3、rcp45cooler_ssp5、rcp45hotter_ssp3、rcp45hotter_ssp5、rcp85cooler_ssp3、rcp85cooler_ssp5、rcp85hotter_ssp3及rcp85hotter_ssp5。
本次使用的气候情景数据来源于IM3热力学全球变暖（IM3 Thermodynamic Global Warming, TGW）数据集，相关链接详见下文的关联元数据。
关联元数据中还包含了存储GCAM-USA原始输出文件的代码仓库链接。