Landscape and Regional Impacts of Hurricanes in Puerto Rico 1508-1997

This project used a combination of historical research and computer modeling to study the impacts of hurricanes in Puerto Rico since 1508. For details on methods and results, please see the published paper (Boose, E. R., M. I. Serrano and D. R. Foster. 2004. Landscape and regional impacts of hurricanes in Puerto Rico. Ecological Monographs 74: 335-352). The Abstract from the paper is reproduced below. "Puerto Rico is subject to frequent and severe impacts from hurricanes, whose long-term ecological role must be assessed on a scale of centuries. In this study we applied a method for reconstructing hurricane disturbance regimes developed in an earlier study of hurricanes in New England. Patterns of actual wind damage from historical records were analyzed for 85 hurricanes since European settlement in 1508. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) was used to reconstruct the impacts of 43 hurricanes since 1851. Long-term effects of topography on a landscape scale in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) were simulated with a simple topographic exposure model (EXPOS). "Average return intervals across Puerto Rico for F0 damage (loss of leaves and branches) and F1 damage (scattered blowdowns, small gaps) on the Fujita scale were 4 and 6 years, respectively. At higher damage levels a gradient was created by the direction of the storm tracks and the weakening of hurricanes over the interior mountains. Average return intervals for F2 damage (extensive blowdowns) and F3 damage (forests leveled) ranged from 15 to 33 years and 50 to 150 years, respectively, from east to west. In the LEF, the combination of steep topography and constrained peak wind directions created a complex mosaic of topographic exposure and protection, with average return intervals for F3 damage ranging from 50 years to more than 150 years. Actual forest damage was strongly dependent on land-use history and the effects of recent hurricanes. Annual and decadal timing of hurricanes varied widely. There was no clear centennial-scale trend in the number of major hurricanes over the historical period."

本项目结合历史研究与计算机建模手段，对1508年以来波多黎各遭受飓风影响的情况展开研究。有关研究方法与结果的详细内容，请参阅已发表的学术论文：Boose, E. R., M. I. Serrano 与 D. R. Foster. 2004. 《波多黎各飓风的景观与区域影响》. 《生态专论（Ecological Monographs）》74卷：335-352。
该论文的摘要如下："波多黎各频繁遭受强烈飓风侵袭，其长期生态效应需以百年尺度开展评估。本研究采用此前针对新英格兰飓风研究所开发的飓风扰动重建方法，对1508年欧洲殖民定居以来的85场飓风，基于历史记录分析了其实际风害模式。1851年以来的43场飓风，则通过简易气象模型（HURRECON）重建其影响。针对卢奎略实验林（Luquillo Experimental Forest, LEF）的景观尺度长期地形效应，我们借助简易地形暴露模型（EXPOS）进行了模拟。
按照藤田级数（Fujita scale），波多黎各全境F0级风害（叶片与枝条脱落）与F1级风害（局部倒伏、形成小型林隙）的平均重现期分别为4年与6年。风害等级更高时，风暴路径方向与内陆山脉对飓风的削弱作用会形成空间梯度。F2级风害（大范围倒伏）与F3级风害（整片森林被夷平）的平均重现期从东到西分别为15至33年与50至150年。
在卢奎略实验林中，陡峭地形与受限的峰值风向共同形成了复杂的地形暴露与遮蔽镶嵌格局，F3级风害的平均重现期从50年至150年以上不等。实际森林受损程度强烈依赖于土地利用历史与近期飓风的影响。飓风的年际与年代际发生时间差异极大。在历史记录时段内，强飓风的数量未呈现明确的百年尺度趋势。"