Replication Data for: Soldiers and Protest: A Set-Theory Perspective on Military Repression of Anti-Regime Mass Mobilization in Autocracies

What explains when militant groups claim attacks? In this study, I argue that militant groups are more likely to claim attacks early in the organization’s lifespan and after major blows to reputation like loss of a leader due to leadership decapitation. This is because credit-claiming helps militants signal resolve to a wider audience, thereby burnishing the organization’s reputation. Specifically, I argue that claims of militant attacks are costly for organizations because they may be met with government retaliation. However, groups that are younger or have recently suffered the loss of a leader seek to use government retaliation to signal resolve. I find support for this proposition using two sets of empirical analyses. First, I show that claims increase the risk of government retaliation. Then, using a comprehensive dataset of 592 groups, I show that militant groups are more likely to claim attacks in the earliest phases of their lifespans and after their leaders are killed/captured. Although civilian victimization and emerging due to splintering are found to be depressing credit claiming, the findings also suggest that (i) groups that only target security forces, (ii) groups that victimize civilians, (iii) groups that emerged independently without known affiliations with existing groups, and (iv) splinter groups all issue fewer claims as they age. These findings help elucidate a largely overlooked dimension of strategic militant behavior.

哪些因素可解释武装组织何时会宣称认领袭击？本研究提出，武装组织更倾向于在组织成立初期，以及因领导层斩首（leadership decapitation）行动导致领导人损失等声誉遭受重大打击之后，实施袭击认领（credit-claiming）行为。究其原因，袭击认领可帮助武装组织向更广泛的受众传递自身行动决心，进而提升组织声誉。
具体而言，本研究认为，袭击认领对组织而言存在潜在代价：此举可能招致政府的报复。但较年轻的组织，或是近期遭遇领导人遇害或被俘的组织，则会试图借助政府报复来传递自身决心。
本文通过两组实证分析验证了上述命题。其一，研究表明袭击认领行为会提升政府实施报复的风险；其二，基于涵盖592个武装组织的综合数据集，研究发现武装组织在成立初期以及领导人遇害或被俘后，更有可能宣称认领其发动的袭击。
尽管研究发现，加害平民的行为以及分裂衍生组织会降低其袭击认领的倾向，但研究结果同时显示：（1）仅以安全部队为袭击目标的组织、（2）加害平民的组织、（3）独立崛起且未与现有组织存在已知关联的组织，以及（4）分裂衍生组织，其袭击认领概率均会随着组织存续时长的增加而下降。
上述发现有助于阐明战略武装行为中一个长期被忽视的重要维度。