Data supplement for Oliver et al. "The North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and phytoplankton bloom under potential future climate scenarios"

%% Data supplement for the analysis for journal article: % % The North Atlantic sub-polar gyre and phytoplankton bloom under potential future climate scenarios % % Sophy Oliver1, Andrew Yool1, Lee de Mora2, Stephen Kelly1, Spencer K. Liddicoat3, Alexandra Loveridge1, Robin S. Smith4, Ekaterina Popova1 % 1 National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK % 2 Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK % 3 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom % 4 Department of Meteorology, NCAS, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom % % Corresponding author: Sophy Oliver ([e-mail]) % % Submitted August 2025 Data supplement contents: - code: MATLAB post processing and plotting scripts, all called from main.m - data: model grid mask information - post_processed_data: model data generated by the code, and used for plotting - Plots: results (figures and tables) generated by code Here's a more in-depth breakdown of each sub-directory: code ************************************************************************************* - main.m: Main script organising the workflow of post-processing. This script calls all the functions/scripts below. - extractOvershootRun2D.m Extract 2D annual statistics from monthly .nc files (input data not provided - for transparency only) - extractOvershootRun3D.m Extract 3D annual statistics from monthly .nc files (input data not provided - for transparency only) - create_SPG_contour.m Create SPG region - calcRegionalMeans.m Extract 2D regional means - plot_cumulative_emissions.m Calculate cumulative emissions - subplot_overshoots.m Plot each subplot of combined Figure 1 - plot_rampup_vs_obs.m Plot Figure 2 (model validation) - plot_rampup_SSH_MLD.m Plot Figure S2 (compare SSH and MLD) - create_trend_results.m Calculate trends and time to recovery (Figures S3-5, Tables 1 and S1), using method 1 of trend calculation. Duplicate script create_trend_results_method2.m does the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - create_trend_maps.m Plot maps of trends (Figures 3, 5, 6, S6, S7) - calc_all_trends_in_region.m Calculate trends required for composite Figure 4, using method 1 of trend calculation Duplicate script calc_all_trends_in_region_method2.m does the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - create_composite_figure.m Plot composite Figure 4 panels Duplicate script create_composite_figure_method2.m does the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - plot_hystereses_manuscript.m Plot hysteresis Figure 9 - plot_maps.m Plot Figures 7, S8, S9, S11 - calcRegionalMeans3D.m Extract 3D regional means (input data not provided - for transparency only) - calculateDensity3D.m Calculate density (input data not provided - for transparency only) - plot_hov.m Hovmoller plot Figure 8 data ************************************************************************************* - nemo_mask100e_ARCTIC.mat MATLAB data file containing model grid basin mask 1-degree, tripolar, focused equatorial resolution Latitude and longitude are the midpoints of the grid cells - nemo_area100e.mat MATLAB data file containing the grid cell areas (m^2) post_processed_data ********************************************************************** - annual_2D Directory containing MATLAB files of North Atlantic 2-dimensional variables (lat x lon) throughout the 16 UKESM experiments. Variables: - mixed layer depth "mlotst" [m] calculated as the depth at which density exceeds the density at 10 m + 0.03 kg m-3 - surface dissolved inorganic nitrate "DIN" [mmol N m-3] - surface chlorophyll-a concentration in both non-diatoms and diatoms combined "CHNCHD" [mg Chl m-3] - sea surface height "zos" [m] (pre-industrial only) Experiments: - pre-industrial "pi" - historical "historical" - positive emissions "rampup" - zero emissions from 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, 5 and 6 degreec C global warming levels "zeroX" - slow negative emissions from 1.5, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 degreec C global warming levels "snegX" For each variable (e.g. DIN.mat for the rampup experiment), the MATLAB file contains: - t: time (years). The rampup, zeroX and snegX all have the year 1850 as the start of the rampup The pre-industrial has shifted years as the year 2227 is when the rampup branched off (i.e. year 1850 of the rampup, zeroX and snegX) The historical aligns to real years. - lon: longitude - lat: latitude - annual_max: the maximum of the monthly means - annual_min: the minimum of the monthly means (provided for SSH/zos.mat only) - regional_means Regional means of the annual_2D data, for both the global "Global" regional means and the SPG "SSH_contour" regional means of various variables. - regional_means_3D Regional means of the annual 3D data, for the SPG "SSH_contour" regional means of various variables. - regions Model grid mask for the selected SPG region - time2recovery Mean trends averaged over the SPG region and calculated time to recovery for each experiment, using method 1 of trend calculation Duplicate folder time2recovery_method2 provides the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. - allMeanTrends Mean trends calculated for each grid cell within the SPG region, for each experiment, using method 1 of trend calculation Duplicate folder allMeanTrends_method2 provides the same but using method 2 for trend calculation. Plots subfolders ************************************************************************************* - Figure1 Figure 1 - validation Figure 2 - trends/maps Panels required for Figures 3, 5, 6, S6, S7, using method 1 of trend calculation. - composite_results Figure panels for Figure 4 - maps Plots like Figures 7, S8, S9, S11 - hovmoller Figure 8 - hysteresis Plots like Figure 9 - pi Figure S1 - EarlyWarning Figure S2 - trends/SSH_contour Figures S3, S4, S5 and tabulated data for Table 1, using method 1 of trend calculation. - trends_method2/SSH_contour Tabulated data for Table S1, using method 1 of trend calculation.## 期刊文章分析配套数据补充材料 潜在未来气候情景下北大西洋副极地环流与浮游植物水华 作者：Sophy Oliver¹, Andrew Yool¹, Lee de Mora², Stephen Kelly¹, Spencer K. Liddicoat³, Alexandra Loveridge¹, Robin S. Smith⁴, Ekaterina Popova¹ ¹ 英国南安普顿国家海洋中心，南安普顿 SO14 3ZH ² 英国普利茅斯普利茅斯海洋实验室，PL1 3DH ³ 英国埃克塞特梅德韦办公室哈德利中心 ⁴ 英国雷丁大学雷丁国家大气科学中心气象学系 通讯作者：Sophy Oliver ([e-mail]) 投稿时间：2025年8月 本数据补充材料包含以下内容： - code：MATLAB（矩阵实验室）后处理与绘图脚本，全部通过main.m调用执行 - data：模型网格掩膜信息 - post_processed_data：由代码生成并用于绘图的模型数据 - Plots：代码生成的结果（图表与表格） 下面对每个子目录进行详细说明： ************************************************************************************* code目录 ************************************************************************************* - main.m：统筹后处理工作流的主脚本，调用下述全部函数/脚本 - extractOvershootRun2D.m：从月度.nc格式文件中提取二维年度统计量（输入数据未提供，仅用于透明性展示） - extractOvershootRun3D.m：从月度.nc格式文件中提取三维年度统计量（输入数据未提供，仅用于透明性展示） - create_SPG_contour.m：创建副极地环流（Sub-polar Gyre, SPG）区域掩膜 - calcRegionalMeans.m：提取二维区域平均数据 - plot_cumulative_emissions.m：计算累积排放量 - subplot_overshoots.m：绘制组合图1的各子图 - plot_rampup_vs_obs.m：绘制图2（模型验证结果） - plot_rampup_SSH_MLD.m：绘制补充图S2（海表高度与混合层深度对比） - create_trend_results.m：基于趋势计算方法1，计算趋势与恢复时间（对应图S3-5、表1与补充表S1）。另有重复脚本create_trend_results_method2.m，采用趋势计算方法2实现相同功能 - create_trend_maps.m：绘制趋势分布图（对应图3、5、6、S6、S7） - calc_all_trends_in_region.m：基于趋势计算方法1，计算组合图4所需的区域趋势量。另有重复脚本calc_all_trends_in_region_method2.m，采用趋势计算方法2实现相同功能 - create_composite_figure.m：绘制组合图4的各面板。另有重复脚本create_composite_figure_method2.m，采用趋势计算方法2实现相同功能 - plot_hystereses_manuscript.m：绘制滞后效应图9 - plot_maps.m：绘制图7、S8、S9、S11 - calcRegionalMeans3D.m：提取三维区域平均数据（输入数据未提供，仅用于透明性展示） - calculateDensity3D.m：计算密度（输入数据未提供，仅用于透明性展示） - plot_hov.m：绘制霍夫莫勒图（Hovmöller plot，图8） ************************************************************************************* data目录 ************************************************************************************* - nemo_mask100e_ARCTIC.mat：MATLAB数据文件，包含模型网格流域掩膜。采用1°分辨率、三极坐标，赤道区域分辨率提升。纬度与经度为网格单元的中点坐标 - nemo_area100e.mat：MATLAB数据文件，包含网格单元面积（单位：平方米） ************************************************************************************* post_processed_data目录 ************************************************************************************* - annual_2D：包含16组英国地球系统模型（United Kingdom Earth System Model, UKESM）试验下北大西洋二维变量（纬度×经度）的MATLAB文件目录。变量包括： - 混合层深度"mlotst"[m]，定义为密度超过10米层密度+0.03 kg·m⁻³的深度 - 表层溶解无机硝酸盐"DIN"[mmol N·m⁻³] - 非硅藻与硅藻合并的表层叶绿素a浓度"CHNCHD"[mg Chl·m⁻³] - 海表高度"zos"[m]（仅预工业试验数据） 实验设置包括： - 预工业试验"pi" - 历史试验"historical" - 正排放试验"rampup" - 分别在全球增暖1.5、2、2.5、3、4、5、6℃时实现零排放的试验"zeroX" - 分别在全球增暖1.5、2、3、4、5、6℃时实施缓慢负排放的试验"snegX" 对于每个变量文件（例如rampup试验对应的DIN.mat），其包含的数据内容为： - t：时间（单位：年）。其中rampup、zeroX与snegX试验均以1850年作为排放爬坡阶段的起始年；预工业试验的时间轴经过偏移，2227年对应rampup、zeroX与snegX试验的1850年；历史试验采用真实年份对齐 - lon：经度 - lat：纬度 - annual_max：月均数据的年度最大值 - annual_min：月均数据的年度最小值（仅海表高度zos.mat文件提供该字段） - regional_means：二维年度数据的区域平均结果，涵盖全球（Global）与副极地环流区域（SSH_contour）的各类变量平均 - regional_means_3D：三维年度数据的区域平均结果，涵盖副极地环流区域（SSH_contour）的各类变量平均 - regions：选定副极地环流区域的模型网格掩膜 - time2recovery：基于趋势计算方法1，在副极地环流区域平均后的平均趋势与各试验的恢复时间计算结果。另有重复文件夹time2recovery_method2，采用趋势计算方法2生成相同内容 - allMeanTrends：基于趋势计算方法1，在副极地环流区域内每个网格单元计算的平均趋势结果。另有重复文件夹allMeanTrends_method2，采用趋势计算方法2生成相同内容 ************************************************************************************* Plots子目录 ************************************************************************************* - Figure1：图1对应结果 - validation：图2对应结果 - trends/maps：基于趋势计算方法1，生成图3、5、6、S6、S7所需的面板 - composite_results：图4对应的图表面板 - maps：绘制图7、S8、S9、S11 - hovmoller：图8（霍夫莫勒图）对应结果 - hysteresis：图9（滞后效应图）对应结果 - pi：补充图S1对应结果 - EarlyWarning：补充图S2对应结果 - trends/SSH_contour：基于趋势计算方法1，生成补充图S3、S4、S5以及表1所需的制表数据 - trends_method2/SSH_contour：基于趋势计算方法1，生成补充表S1所需的制表数据