Replication data for: Casting a Shadow Over War Zones? Hard Truths About the ICC’s Efforts to Deter Wartime Atrocities

Twenty years after the International Criminal Court (ICC or Court) launched, its mission of preventing atrocity crimes remains controversial, with skeptics arguing that it is unrealistic, pessimists that it overlooks the potential of the Court to escalate conflicts, and optimists contending that it can work for both government and rebel leaders. I argue that during civil wars the ICC is only likely to deter rebel forces given that Court officials are likely to have an easier time pursuing their leaders should they commit atrocity crimes. This article systematically evaluates these competing claims by providing the most extended look yet at the ICC’s record in African civil wars, the primary focus of the Court’s efforts to-date. I find that existing perspectives do not tell the full story of the ICC’s impact in war zones. The results suggest that the ICC has failed to deter African government forces. However, I uncover highly suggestive evidence that the more actions the ICC takes to pursue suspected war criminals during ongoing conflicts, the more likely it is to deter rebels. Notably, most of these ICC actions have targeted rebels. Importantly, I find no indication that the ICC is associated with increased civilian killings by either government or rebel forces. With the permanent ICC, the shadow of criminal prosecution now extends to modern-day conflicts. This study helps to broaden our understanding of how and when the ICC might contribute to deterring wartime atrocities.

国际刑事法院（International Criminal Court，ICC，下称法院）成立并正式运作二十年来，其防范暴行罪的使命仍颇具争议。怀疑论者认为其目标不切实际，悲观论者称其忽视了法院可能加剧冲突的风险，而乐观论者则主张该法院可同时约束政府与反叛武装领导人。本文提出，在内战场景下，国际刑事法院仅能有效威慑反叛武装——原因在于，若武装领导人犯下暴行罪，法院官员更容易对其展开追捕。本文通过迄今为止最为全面地梳理国际刑事法院在非洲内战中的履职记录，系统性地评估了上述各方的分歧主张，而非洲内战正是该法院迄今为止的核心工作重心。研究发现，既有观点并未完整揭示国际刑事法院在战区的实际影响。结果显示，国际刑事法院未能威慑非洲政府军。但本文发现了极具说服力的证据：在冲突持续期间，国际刑事法院追捕涉嫌战争罪嫌疑人的行动越多，其威慑反叛武装的可能性就越高。值得注意的是，该法院的此类行动大多以反叛武装为目标。尤为重要的是，本文未发现任何证据表明，国际刑事法院会导致政府军或反叛武装加剧平民杀戮。随着常设国际刑事法院的设立，刑事追责的阴影如今已延伸至当代冲突之中。本研究有助于深化我们对国际刑事法院在何种情境下、以何种方式助力威慑战时暴行的认知。