Monitoring the Future: Restricted-Use Panel Data, United States, 1976-2019

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) project is a long-term epidemiologic and etiologic study of substance use among youth and adults in the United States. It is conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, and funded by a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF has two components: MTF Main and MTF Panel. From its inception in 1975, the cross-sectional MTF Main study has collected data annually from nationally representative samples of 12,000-19,000 high school seniors in 12th grade located in approximately 135 schools nationwide. Beginning in 1991, similar annual cross-sectional surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th graders have been conducted. In all, approximately 45,000 students annually respond to about 100 drug use and demographic questions, as well as to about 200 additional questions divided among multiple survey forms on other topics such as attitudes toward government, social institutions, race relations, changing gender roles, educational aspirations, occupational aims, and marital plans. The longitudinal MTF Panel study conducts follow-up surveys with representative subsamples of respondents from each 12th grade cohort participating in MTF Main. From each cohort, a sample of about 2,450 students are selected for longitudinal follow-up, with an oversampling of students who reported prior drug use during their 12th grade survey. Longitudinal follow-up currently spans modal ages 19-30 and 35-60. For surveys at modal ages 19-30, the sample is randomly split into two halves (approx. 1,225 each) to be followed every other year. One half-sample begins its first follow-up the year after high school (at modal age 19), and the other half-sample begins its first follow-up in the second year after high school (at modal age 20). Thus, six young adult follow-up (FU) surveys occur between modal ages 19-30, at modal ages 19/20 (FU1), 21/22 (FU2), 23/24 (FU3), 25/26 (FU4), 27/28 (FU5), and 29/30 (FU6). After age 30, respondents are surveyed every five years: 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60 (these are referred to as FZ surveys). The FZ surveys cover many of the same topics as the 12th grade and FU surveys and include additional questions on life events and health. MTF Panel surveys for the young adults (ages 19-30) were conducted using mailed paper surveys from 1977-2017. In 2018 and 2019, a random half of all those aged 19-30 received a mailed paper survey, while the other half were surveyed using a new procedure that encouraged participation using web surveys (web-push). The FZ surveys (ages 35-60) were conducted using mailed paper surveys through the 2019 data collection. More information about the MTF project can be accessed through the Monitoring the Future website. Annual reports are published by the research team, describing the data collection and trends over time.

《未来监测》（Monitoring the Future，简称 MTF）项目是一项长期进行的流行病学和病因学研究，旨在探究美国青少年及成年人的物质使用情况。该项目由密歇根大学社会研究学院主持，并得到国家药物滥用研究所一系列研究者发起的研究资助。MTF 项目分为两个部分：MTF 主项目和 MTF 面板项目。自 1975 年成立以来，横断面 MTF 主项目每年从全国 12,000 至 19,000 名 12 年级高中生的代表性样本中收集数据，这些学生分布在约 135 所学校中。自 1991 年起，针对 8 年级和 10 年级学生的类似年度横断面调查也开始进行。总计，每年约有 45,000 名学生参与回答约 100 个关于药物使用和人口统计的问题，以及关于政府态度、社会机构、种族关系、性别角色变化、教育抱负、职业目标以及婚姻计划的约 200 个额外问题。纵向 MTF 面板项目对 MTF 主项目参与的每个 12 年级队列的代表性子样本进行追踪调查。从每个队列中选取约 2,450 名学生进行纵向追踪，对在 12 年级调查中报告过药物使用的学生进行过度抽样。纵向追踪目前覆盖了 19-30 岁和 35-60 岁的典型年龄。在 19-30 岁的典型年龄调查中，样本随机分为两半（各约 1,225 名）以每隔一年进行追踪。一半样本在高中毕业后（19 岁典型年龄）开始其首次追踪，另一半样本则在高中毕业后第二年（20 岁典型年龄）开始其首次追踪。因此，在 19-30 岁典型年龄之间，共进行了六次年轻成人追踪调查（FU），分别在 19/20 岁（FU1）、21/22 岁（FU2）、23/24 岁（FU3）、25/26 岁（FU4）、27/28 岁（FU5）和 29/30 岁（FU6）。30 岁之后，受访者每五年接受一次调查：35 岁、40 岁、45 岁、50 岁、55 岁和 60 岁（这些被称为 FZ 调查）。FZ 调查涵盖了 12 年级和 FU 调查中的许多相同主题，并增加了关于生活事件和健康的问题。1977-2017 年间，对年轻成人（19-30 岁）的 MTF 面板调查采用了邮寄纸质问卷的方式进行。2018 年和 2019 年，19-30 岁年龄段的随机一半人群收到了邮寄的纸质问卷，而另一半人群则通过一种新的鼓励参与的方法，即使用网络调查（网络推送）进行问卷调查。2019 年数据收集期间，FZ 调查（35-60 岁）仍然采用邮寄纸质问卷的方式。有关 MTF 项目的更多信息可通过《未来监测》网站获取。研究团队每年发布年度报告，描述数据收集和随时间推移的趋势。