Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) distribution using a large-scale 30-year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda’s distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

气候变化是全球范围内对生物多样性影响最为广泛的威胁之一，但相较于其他导致物种衰退与分布范围收缩的驱动因素，气候因素的影响仍难以厘清。本研究依托一套大规模的30年数据集，分析大熊猫（Ailuropoda melanoleuca）分布的气候与非气候相关因子，以评估气候变化是否已对大熊猫分布产生影响。本研究记录了多项气候变化模式，包括气温上升、季节温度与降水格局的改变。研究发现，尽管气候因子曾是影响大熊猫分布的最主要预测因子，但其重要性随时间推移逐渐下降，而景观变量的相对重要性则不断提升。本研究最终得出结论：大熊猫的分布已受到气候变化的影响，但针对栖息地管理的保护干预措施正日益抵消此类负面影响。