Twelve Years of Unconventional Development - Results of Cash flow Sensitivity Analysis on Price and Cost

This dataset was generated for research on twelve years of unconventional development. Five major unconventional formations in the US were studied: the Bakken, Eagleford, Haynesville, Marcellus, and Wolfcamp formations. The Bakken, Eagleford, and Wolfcamp produce oil as the major fluid phase while the Marcellus and Haynesville are gas plays. We developed 16 type curves per formation for wells completed in 2008 - 2019 (one curve per year excluding 2019 due to insufficient data) and identified four developmental phases of unconventional development over the past 12 years during which D&C technology, initial investment, and commodity prices were similar: Early development phase (Phase 1), Pre-downturn phase (Phase 2), Downturn phase (Phase 3), and Post downturn phase (Phase 4) - four additional curves. One overall type curve for each formation was also generated. The data shown below are the result of a financial performance analysis carried out.

Using historical investment data and the generated type curves from historical production data, the financial performance of the wells for the next 15 years was studied using the following variable scenarios:

Variable Value Min Max
Oil Price ($/bbl) 60 20 100
Gas Price ($/Mcf) 3 1 6
Oil Opex ($/bbl) 5 2.5 10
Gas Opex ($/Mcf) 2 1 4
Water Opex ($/bbl) 3 - -
Fixed cost ($/month) 2000 1000 4000
Working Interest 100% - -
Royalty Burden 12.5% - -
Discount Rate 10% 0% 100%

Economic analysis was performed using the discounted cash flow model. At the end of each run, we extract some economic measures (explained in the introduction section) like the net cash flow (NCF), discounted net cash flow or net present value (NPV) at different investment opportunity (or discount) rates (𝑖𝑜𝑝), rate of return (ROR), payout, discounted and undiscounted return on investment (ROI) and the estimated oil and gas recoveries (EURs) at the economic limit. In addition, the type curve parameters used for each case were reported. NA value means that the case was uneconomic and hence those parameters evaluated to NA.

本数据集专为十二年非常规油气开发研究构建。研究覆盖美国五大非常规油气地层：巴肯（Bakken）、伊格尔福特（Eagleford）、海恩斯维尔（Haynesville）、马塞勒斯（Marcellus）以及沃尔夫坎普（Wolfcamp）地层。其中巴肯、伊格尔福特与沃尔夫坎普地层以产油为主，马塞勒斯与海恩斯维尔地层则以产气为主。

针对2008年至2019年完钻的井，我们为每个地层构建了16条典型曲线：其中按完钻年份生成曲线（2019年因数据不足未纳入，故覆盖2008至2018年共11条）；同时基于过去12年非常规开发的四个阶段（该阶段内钻完井（Drilling & Completion, D&C）技术、初始投资与大宗商品价格均保持相近水平）额外生成4条阶段典型曲线，分别为开发初期（阶段1）、复苏前（阶段2）、下行期（阶段3）以及复苏后（阶段4）；此外还为每个地层生成了1条总体典型曲线。下文展示的数据即为本次财务绩效分析的结果。

基于历史投资数据与由历史生产数据生成的典型曲线，我们通过以下可变参数情景，对未来15年的井组财务绩效展开研究：各参数的基准值、最小值与最大值如下：1. 油价：基准值60美元/桶，取值范围20至100美元/桶；2. 气价：基准值3美元/千立方英尺（Mcf），取值范围1至6美元/千立方英尺；3. 原油操作成本：基准值5美元/桶，取值范围2.5至10美元/桶；4. 天然气操作成本：基准值2美元/千立方英尺，取值范围1至4美元/千立方英尺；5. 采出水操作成本：基准值3美元/桶，无上下限；6. 固定成本：基准值2000美元/月，取值范围1000至4000美元/月；7. 作业权益比例：基准值100%，无上下限；8. 矿区使用费负担比例：基准值12.5%，无上下限；9. 折现率：基准值10%，取值范围0%至100%。

本次经济分析采用折现现金流模型（Discounted Cash Flow, DCF）。每次模拟运行结束后，我们将提取多项经济指标（详见引言部分），包括不同投资机会（或折现）利率（𝑖𝑜𝑝）下的净现金流（Net Cash Flow, NCF）、折现净现金流（即净现值Net Present Value, NPV）、收益率（Rate of Return, ROR）、投资回收期、折现与未折现投资回报率（Return on Investment, ROI），以及经济极限下的估算油气可采储量（Estimated Ultimate Recovery, EURs）。此外，还将记录各案例所用的典型曲线参数。NA值代表该案例不具备经济性，因此相关参数取值为NA。