Global Mean Sea Level, Trajectory and Extrapolation
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DescriptionGlobal Mean Sea Level, Trajectory and Extrapolation This file contains Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) variations along, data for the quadratic fit (trajectory) to the GMSL variations, and an extrapolation of this trajectory to 2050. This data is used in the annual NASA Global Mean Sea Level press release. Column 1 provides the calendar year plus the decimal fraction of the current year. The GMSL variations(column 2) are computed are computed as part of the NASA-SSH data products available from PODAAC at: https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/NASA-SSH. All units for sea level are in centimeters The GMSL was generated using the NASA-SSH Simple Gridded Sea Surface Height from Standardized Reference Missions Version 1: https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/NASA_SSH_REF_SIMPLE_GRID_V1. It combines Sea Surface Heights from the TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, OSTM/Jason-2, HDR Jason-3, and Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich missions. In addition, the rate and acceleration are estimated from full record of GMSL relative to the midpoint of the record and then used to generate a quadratic fit to the data. This quadratic fit is provided in column 3. The rate associated with this quadratic fit at any time in the record is also provided (column 4). The parameters estimated from the quadratic fit are also used to generated an extrapolated time series out to 2050 (column 5). These are provided at yearly intervals. This is not a projection and is only considered an extrapolation of the current trajectory of GMSL variations. This also differs from Nerem et al. (2022) and Sweet et al. (2022) as additional signals are not removed from GMSL prior to estimating the rate and acceleration parameters. The yearly rate associated with this extrapolation is also provided (column 6). If you use these data please cite:Willis, J.K., Hamlington, B.D., and Fournier, S., Global Mean Sea Level Time Series, Trajectory and Extrapolation. Dataset access [YYYY-MM-DD] at 10.5281/zenodo.7702314. References: Nerem, R. S., Frederikse, T., & Hamlington, B. D. (2022). Extrapolating Empirical Models of Satellite‐Observed Global Mean Sea Level to Estimate Future Sea Level Change. Earth's Future, 10(4), e2021EF002290. Sweet, W. V., Hamlington, B. D., Kopp, R. E., Weaver, C. P., Barnard, P. L., Bekaert, D., ... & Zuzak, C. (2022). Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States: updated mean projections and extreme water level probabilities along US coastlines. Interagency Technical Report.
数据集说明：全球平均海平面（Global Mean Sea Level, GMSL）、变化轨迹与外推 本文件包含全球平均海平面（GMSL）变化数据、针对GMSL变化的二次拟合（轨迹）数据，以及该轨迹至2050年的外推数据。本数据集用于美国国家航空航天局（National Aeronautics and Space Administration, NASA）年度全球平均海平面新闻发布。 第1列内容为日历年加上当年的小数部分。GMSL变化（第2列）系NASA海洋表面高度（Sea Surface Height, SSH）数据产品的组成部分，经计算得到，可从物理海洋学分布式主动归档中心（Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center, PODAAC）获取：https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/NASA-SSH。所有海平面数据单位均为厘米。本GMSL数据集基于标准化参考任务版本1的NASA-SSH简单网格化海面高度数据生成，访问地址为：https://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/dataset/NASA_SSH_REF_SIMPLE_GRID_V1。该数据集整合了TOPEX/Poseidon、Jason-1、OSTM/Jason-2、HDR Jason-3以及Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich等卫星任务的海面高度数据。 此外，基于完整的GMSL观测序列并以序列中点为基准，估算得到变化速率与加速度，并据此生成针对该序列的二次拟合结果，对应数据列于第3列。本二次拟合在序列任意时刻对应的变化速率也一并提供（第4列）。 从二次拟合中得到的参数还被用于生成截至2050年的外推时间序列（第5列），数据按年间隔提供。本结果并非正式预测，仅为当前GMSL变化轨迹的外推结果。与Nerem等人（2022）及Sweet等人（2022）的研究不同，本数据集在估算速率与加速度参数前，未从GMSL数据中剔除额外信号分量。本次外推对应的年变化速率也一并提供（第6列）。 若使用本数据集，请引用如下文献：Willis, J.K., Hamlington, B.D. 与Fournier, S.，《全球平均海平面时间序列、变化轨迹与外推》。数据集访问日期[YYYY-MM-DD]，DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7702314。 参考文献： 1. Nerem, R. S., Frederikse, T. & Hamlington, B. D. (2022). 外推卫星观测的全球平均海平面经验模型以预估未来海平面变化. 《地球的未来》, 10(4), e2021EF002290. 2. Sweet, W. V., Hamlington, B. D., Kopp, R. E., Weaver, C. P., Barnard, P. L., Bekaert, D. 等(2022). 美国全球及区域海平面上升情景：美国海岸沿线更新的平均预估与极端水位概率. 跨部门技术报告.
