Australian crop report: December 2014 No.172

The report is a quarterly report with a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state by state basis. \r\n\r\n Key Issues \r\n\r\n 2014-15 winter crop production • Prospects for total Australian winter crop production in 2014-15 have weakened as a result of drier than average seasonal conditions over winter and spring, particularly in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. \r\n• Compared with production in 2013-14, winter crop production in 2014-15 is forecast to fall in all the major producing states with large forecast falls in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. However, the expected falls in production in Western Australia and South Australia are from well above average levels of production in 2013-14. \r\n• Total Australian winter crop production is forecast to fall by 16 per cent in 2014-15 to 37 million tonnes, which is a 4 per cent downward revision from the ABARES September 2014 forecast. \r\n• At this forecast level, winter crop production in 2014-15 would still be around 4 per cent higher than the average of 35.7 million tonnes in the 10-years to 2012-13. \r\n• Wheat production is forecast to decline by 14 per cent in 2014-15 to 23.2 million tonnes. Barley production is forecast to fall by 22 per cent to 7.4 million tonnes and canola production is forecast to fall by 12 per cent to 3.3 million tonnes. \r\n• Harvesting of winter crops is largely complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Harvesting is underway in Western Australia, South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria. \r\n 2014-15 summer crop production • Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 13 per cent in 2014-15 to around 3.2 million tonnes. \r\n• Less than favourable seasonal conditions during winter and spring in Queensland and northern New South Wales depleted soil moisture levels and irrigation water availability, resulting in unfavourable planting conditions at the start of the summer crop planting window. \r\n• The area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 13 per cent to 974 000 hectares, driven by a large fall in the area planted to cotton. \r\n• The area planted to cotton is estimated to decline to 210 000 hectares in 2014-15, down from 392 000 hectares in 2013-14. This reflects relatively low cotton prices at the time of planting and dry seasonal conditions over winter, which reduced the level of irrigation water in dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions. \r\n• The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2014-15 to 532 000 hectares. At this forecast level, the area planted to grain sorghum would be 24 per cent less than the 10-year average to 2012-13 of 702 000 hectares. \r\n• Because soil moisture levels are low in summer cropping regions, sufficient and timely in-crop rainfall will be critical for the development of grain sorghum crops in 2014-15. \r\n• The area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2014-15 to around 71 000 hectares, reflecting a reduction in the supply of irrigation water in New South Wales. \r\n

本报告为季度报告，定期对主要大田作物的生产前景开展系统性评估，同时预测其种植面积、单产与总产量，并按州逐一汇总各地区的季节气候状况。

关键要点

2014-15年度冬季作物生产情况
• 受冬春两季气候较常年偏干燥影响，2014-15年度澳大利亚冬季作物总产量前景疲软，其中昆士兰州、新南威尔士州与维多利亚州的情况尤为突出。
• 与2013-14年度相比，2014-15年度所有主要产粮州的冬季作物总产量均预计下滑，其中维多利亚州、西澳大利亚州与南澳大利亚州的降幅尤为显著。不过西澳大利亚州与南澳大利亚州的总产量下滑，是建立在2013-14年度产量远高于常年水平的基础之上。
• 预计2014-15年度澳大利亚冬季作物总产量将下滑16%至3700万吨，较澳大利亚农业与资源经济科学局（ABARES）2014年9月的预测下调了4%。
• 按照这一预测值，2014-15年度冬季作物总产量仍将较截至2012-13年度的10年平均值（3570万吨）高出约4%。
• 预计小麦（wheat）产量将下滑14%至2320万吨；大麦（barley）产量预计下滑22%至740万吨；油菜籽（canola）产量预计下滑12%至330万吨。
• 昆士兰州与新南威尔士州北部的冬季作物收获工作已基本完成；西澳大利亚州、南澳大利亚州、新南威尔士州南部及维多利亚州的收获工作正在进行中。

2014-15年度夏季作物生产情况
• 预计2014-15年度夏季作物（summer crop）总产量将下滑13%至约320万吨。
• 昆士兰州与新南威尔士州北部的冬春两季气候条件欠佳，导致土壤墒情与灌溉用水储备下降，使得夏季作物播种季初始阶段的种植条件不利。
• 受棉花种植面积大幅下滑影响，预计夏季作物总种植面积将下滑13%至97.4万公顷。
• 2014-15年度棉花（cotton）种植面积预计从2013-14年度的39.2万公顷降至21.0万公顷。这主要是因为播种期棉花价格相对低迷，加之冬季气候干燥导致澳大利亚棉花种植区的水库灌溉用水减少。
• 预计粒用高粱（grain sorghum）种植面积将增长8%至53.2万公顷。按照这一预测值，粒用高粱种植面积仍较截至2012-13年度的10年平均值（70.2万公顷）低24%。
• 由于夏季种植区土壤墒情偏低，2014-15年度粒用高粱的生长过程中，适时且充足的田间降雨将至关重要。
• 受新南威尔士州灌溉用水供应减少影响，预计水稻（rice）种植面积将下滑7%至约7.1万公顷。