Replication Data for: \"Why Do States Intervene in the Elections of Others? The Role of Incumbent-Opposition Divisions\"

Why do states intervene in elections abroad? We argue that outsiders intervene when themain domestic contenders for office adopt policy positions that differ from the point of view ofthe outside power. We refer to the split between the government’s and opposition’s positionsas policy polarization. Polarization between domestic political forces, rather than the degree ofunfriendliness of the government in office, is what attracts interventions of two types: process(for or against democracy) and candidate (for or against the government) interventions. Weprovide a novel, original data set to track the policy positions of local contenders. We showthat the new policy polarization measurement outperforms a number of available alternativeswhen it comes to explaining process and candidate interventions. We use it to explain thebehavior of the United States as an intervener in elections over the period 1945 to 2012. TheUnited States is more likely to support the opposition, and the democratic process abroad,if a pro-US opposition is facing an anti-US government. It is is more likely to support thegovernment, and undermine the democratic process abroad, if a pro-US government is facingan anti-US opposition. We also present results for all interveners, confirming the results fromthe US case.

国家为何会干预他国选举？本文提出核心论点：当本国主要参选公职的候选人所采取的政策立场与外部干预国的立场相悖时，外部势力便会实施干预。我们将政府与反对党之间的立场分歧定义为政策极化（policy polarization）。相较于在任政府的敌对程度，本国政治力量间的极化程度才是吸引两类干预的核心动因：一类是程序型干预（支持或反对民主进程），另一类是候选人型干预（支持或反对特定政府）。本文构建了一套全新的原创数据集，用于追踪本地参选者的政策立场。我们证实，相较于现有多种替代测度指标，这套全新的政策极化指标在解释程序型干预与候选人型干预方面表现更优。我们利用该数据集解释了1945年至2012年间美国作为选举干预国的行为模式。研究发现，当亲美反对党对抗反美政府时，美国更倾向于支持该反对党，并维护他国的民主进程；而当亲美政府对抗反美反对党时，美国则更倾向于支持该政府，并破坏他国的民主进程。此外，我们还给出了涵盖所有干预国的分析结果，验证了美国案例中的核心结论。