Replication data for: Quality, Not Quantity: Strategic Politicians in U.S. Senate Elections, 1952-1990

Analyzing senatorial elections between 1952 and 1990, I estimate the impact of challenger experience in various elected offices on vote for the incumbent. Controlling for other factors, U.S. representatives gain a higher proportion of the vote than other elected officials. Consistent with Jacobson's (1990b) theory that the increase in the importance of challenger quality over time in House elections explains the decline in the proportion of marginal House seats, the importance of challenger quality and the proportion of marginal seats remained stable over time in Senate elections. After developing a challenger quality scale based upon the estimated impact of having held different elected offices, I demonstrate that potential senatorial challengers strategically take into account both local and national political and economic conditions when making their candidacy decisions.

本研究针对1952年至1990年的美国参议院选举展开分析，估算挑战者在各类当选公职中的任职经历对现任议员得票率的影响。在控制其他变量的前提下，美国众议员相较于其他当选公职人员，能够获得更高比例的选票。这与雅各布森（Jacobson, 1990b）提出的理论一致：众议院选举中，挑战者资质的重要性随时间推移不断提升，这一因素可解释众议院边际席位占比的下降；而参议院选举中，挑战者资质的重要性与边际席位占比均未随时间出现显著波动。本研究基于不同当选公职任职经历的估算影响构建了挑战者资质量表，并证实潜在参议院挑战者在做出参选决策时，会策略性地兼顾地方与全国层面的政治及经济环境。