Individual Conditioning Factors of Political Protest in Latin America: Effects of Values, Grievance and Resources

Theories about political protest point to three sets of variables responsible for promoting engagement in such actions: resources, grievance and values. There is consensus on the importance of resources, but the influence of grievance and values remain inconclusive. Discontent alone is not enough to motivate protest, but in societies at intermediate levels of development, grievance could be an explanatory variable. By contrast, values would have a limited effect, given that value change in developing countries could only be incipient. In view of the new cycle of protest in the region and wishing to contribute to the debate on the subject, we aim to discover what the relationship is between these three sets of variables as regards Latin Americans’ predisposition to protest. Given that these countries find themselves at an intermediate level of economic and social development, it would seem that the primary motivation for protest is discontent, as under such circumstances the relative scarcity of resources presents little obstacle to mobilization. On the other hand, as the societies in question are not advanced industrial societies, the associated low dispersion of emancipatory values would exercise limited effect. To test these hypotheses, we looked at data from the sixth wave of the World Values Survey with reference to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay. The results suggested that grievance was irrelevant as an explanatory factor. Participation in protests in the region is determined by the mobilization of resources and values.关于政治抗议的理论研究指出，推动此类行动参与的变量可分为三类：资源（resources）、不满感（grievance）与价值观（values）。学界对于资源的重要性已达成共识，但不满感与价值观的影响仍未有定论。仅凭不满情绪不足以驱动抗议行动，但在经济社会发展处于中等水平的社会中，不满感可作为一项解释变量。相较而言，价值观的影响则较为有限，因为发展中国家的价值观变革往往尚处于萌芽阶段。 鉴于该地区正迎来抗议活动的新一轮周期，且本研究旨在为相关议题的学术讨论贡献力量，我们旨在探究这三类变量与拉丁美洲民众抗议参与倾向之间的关联。由于本次研究涉及的阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥伦比亚、墨西哥、秘鲁及乌拉圭均处于经济与社会发展的中等水平，按常理抗议的主要动机应为不满感——因为在此类环境下，资源的相对匮乏并不会对动员行动构成显著阻碍。另一方面，由于所研究的社会并非发达工业社会，与之相关的解放价值观（emancipatory values）传播度较低，因此其影响也较为有限。 为验证上述假设，本研究使用了世界价值观调查（World Values Survey）第六轮针对上述七国的调研数据。研究结果显示，不满感并非有效的解释因素，该地区民众的抗议参与度由资源动员与价值观共同决定。