Data from: Future ecosystem services from European mountain forests under climate change

Ecosystem services (ES) from mountain forests are highly relevant for human societies. ES with a direct economic support function (e.g. timber production), regulatory services (e.g. protection from natural hazards) and cultural services (e.g. recreation) are likely to be affected strongly by a rapidly changing climate. To evaluate whether adverse climate change effects on ES can be counteracted by adapting management, dynamic models and indicator-based assessments are needed. We applied a forest dynamic model in case study areas of four European mountain regions and evaluated the future supply of four ES – timber production, carbon sequestration, biodiversity and protection against natural hazards – using state-of-the-art ES indicators. Forest dynamics were simulated under three management scenarios (no management, business-as-usual and alternative management) and five climate change projections for selected representative stand types in each region. We analysed potential trade-offs and synergies between ES and evaluated future changes among regions, forest stands, climate and management scenarios. Impacts of climate change on the provision of multiple ES were found to be highly heterogeneous and to depend on the region, site and future climate. In the absence of large-scale natural disturbance (not considered), protection services, carbon stock and deadwood abundance (proxy for biodiversity) benefitted from no management in all regions. Negative impacts of climate change were evident for the provision of multiple ES but limited to the most severe climate scenarios and low-elevation stands. Synergies and trade-offs between the majority of ES were found to be sensitive to the choice of management strategy and – in some regions – to climate change. Synthesis and applications. Management regimes in European mountain forests should be regionally adapted to stand and site conditions. Although in some cases alternative management regimes may be more suitable than current management for supporting multiple ecosystem services, adaptation options should be evaluated carefully at the local scale due to the highly different magnitude of the impacts of climate change in different regions and along elevation gradients.

山地森林提供的生态系统服务（Ecosystem Services, ES）与人类社会息息相关。具备直接经济支撑功能的生态系统服务（如木材生产）、调节服务（如自然灾害防护）以及文化服务（如休闲游憩），极易受快速变化的气候强烈影响。为评估能否通过调整森林经营措施抵消气候变化对生态系统服务的不利影响，亟需借助动态模型与基于指标的评估手段。我们针对四个欧洲山地林区的案例研究区域，应用森林动态模型，并采用前沿生态系统服务指标，评估了四类生态系统服务的未来供给能力，即木材生产、碳固存、生物多样性保护与自然灾害防护。针对各区域选定的典型林分类型，我们在三种经营情景（无经营、常规经营与替代经营）及五种气候变化预估情景下，模拟了森林动态演变过程。我们分析了生态系统服务间潜在的权衡与协同关系，并评估了不同区域、林分、气候情景与经营情景下的未来变化趋势。研究发现，气候变化对多类生态系统服务供给的影响具有高度异质性，且取决于区域、立地条件以及未来气候状况。在未纳入大规模自然干扰的前提下（本研究未考虑此类干扰），所有区域的防护服务、碳储量与枯木丰度（作为生物多样性的替代指标），在无经营情景下均能获得增益。气候变化对多类生态系统服务供给的负面影响较为显著，但仅出现在最极端的气候情景与低海拔林分中。多数生态系统服务间的协同与权衡关系对经营策略的选择较为敏感，在部分区域中还会受到气候变化的影响。

综合与应用
欧洲山地森林的经营管理方案应结合区域特点，适配林分与立地条件。尽管在部分场景中，替代经营方案相较于现行经营模式更有助于维持多类生态系统服务，但由于不同区域以及海拔梯度上的气候变化影响程度差异显著，因此需在局地尺度上对气候适应方案进行审慎评估。