Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.精准的全球碳排放估算，对于理解全球变暖进程至关重要。本文采用兼顾森林砍伐、森林退化、森林恢复、碳的逐步分解与积累，以及10×10公里网格尺度下地上与地下碳储量异质性的模型，估算了1990-2000年与2000-2010年玻利维亚土地利用变化带来的净碳排放。该方法可生成按区域与土地覆盖类型划分的精细化净碳排放分布图。经估算，玻利维亚土地利用变化引发的净二氧化碳排放量已从1990-2000年的约6500万吨/年，增长至2000-2010年的约9300万吨/年；而样本期内的人均二氧化碳排放量与单位GDP二氧化碳排放量则保持相对稳定。若将成熟森林的估算生物量增量纳入考量范畴，则净二氧化碳排放量将降至接近零的水平。最后，研究证实上述结果在采用不同碳排放计算方法时均具备稳健性。