The impact of mandatory military service on labor outcomes. Evidence from Spain

Using Spanish data, I examine the impact of Military Service (MS) on labor outcomes for men born in 1968 and 1969. To address MS endogeneity, I use a national lottery as an instrumental variable (IV). Results show MS negatively affects various outcomes, depending on individuals’ work-life status at conscription. For men already in the workforce a year prior, IV estimates reveal significant impacts, particularly for those without mandatory education, notably reducing the likelihood of having a Social Security record. Among those entering the labor market post-lottery, Reduced Form estimates suggest an 8.5 percentage point reduction in employment and a 1.3-year decline in labor market experience. MS also leads to a 20% reduction in earnings, based on conservative estimates. Age-based analysis indicates MS effects extend beyond conscription years, highlighting broader implications beyond incapacitation.本研究依托西班牙数据集，考察兵役（Military Service，下文简称MS）对1968年与1969年出生男性群体劳动力市场结果的影响。为解决兵役变量的内生性问题，本研究采用全国性抽签作为工具变量（Instrumental Variable，下文简称IV）。 研究结果显示，兵役对多项劳动力市场结果存在负面影响，且该效应取决于个体应征入伍时的职场状态。对于征兵前一年已进入职场的男性群体，工具变量估计结果呈现出显著负面效应，尤其在未完成义务教育的子样本中更为突出：该群体拥有社会保障参保记录的概率显著降低。 对于抽签后才进入劳动力市场的群体，简约式（Reduced Form）估计结果显示，其就业率下降8.5个百分点，劳动力市场经验减少1.3年。基于保守估计，兵役还会导致收入降低20%。 基于年龄的分层分析表明，兵役的影响并非仅局限于征兵时段，其作用范畴远超劳动能力暂时受限的情形，凸显了更为广泛的社会经济与政策启示。